Those with IRCC interest loans will pay less from today, but rates will rise slightly again from the summer. Calculation example

As of today, banks are updating the rates on loans in lei with variable interest, as a result of the decrease in the reference index for consumer loans (IRCC). There will be a slight increase from July 1st, then most likely a fall in the fall. ROBOR benchmarks fell in the first quarter of the year and are even closer to IRCC, according to data analyzed by Profit.ro.

Romanians with loans in lei linked to IRCC benefit from today the first reduction of the indicator, after three quarters of slight growth. Specifically, the index drops from 5.97% to 5.8%, a level valid until the end of June. The data are calculated on the basis of the average interest rates on interbank transactions from October to December 2023. The IRCC, as a result of the way it was defined in the law, is applied with a delay of 6 months from the collection of the first value in the daily series and with a of 3 months from the collection of the last value. This way we also know what the valid IRCC value will be from July 1 to September 30: 5.85%. This is calculated based on daily data from January-March of the current year.

The decrease in ROBOR can be explained both by the large surplus of liquidity and by the decrease in inflation, expectations of future inflation, and expectations that the NBR will reduce the key interest rate in the coming period.

How much is the decrease in IRCC and ROBOR in a rate

For a loan of 210,000 lei for 300 months, granted with a margin of 2.03 percentage points based on ROBOR at 3 months, respectively 2.5% based on IRCC, from April 1 we have the following hypothetical changes:

The loan rate with variable interest after ROBOR drops to 1,640 lei, from 1,668 lei, after reaching 1,900 lei at the beginning of 2023. The credit rate according to IRCC drops to 1,663 lei, from 1,687 lei, but from September 1 it increases to 1,670 lei. The interest spreads were chosen so that the two loans have the same interest rate at origination in 2019.

Even if in the last two quarters, respectively in the next quarter and most likely in the third quarter as well the rate on the loan linked to ROBOR was lower, overall, if we calculate from the beginning of 2022, when inflation exploded, the total payments for the loan with ROBOR were 4,040 lei higher than for the one with IRCC as a reference.