The three top diplomats said Russia could “pivot quickly” from Ukraine to invade the Baltic Sea area. And they added that Vladimir Putin’s brutalization of Ukraine evokes the three countries’ “darkest memories” of occupation under Stalin.
Estonian Ambassador Viljar Lubi, Latvian Ambassador Ivita Burmistre and Lithuania’s Chargé d’affaires Lina Zigmantaite wrote the joint article to mark the 20th anniversary of their countries joining NATO on Friday.
Diplomats said joining the alliance meant their nations had never enjoyed “stronger collective security” than now, but “neither have we faced a more daunting threat” than the one now.
In an appeal to other European countries that have played down the risk of Russian attack, they said: “Our warnings about the latent and growing threat in the east have been too easily dismissed in some allied capitals. We knew then, as we know today, that only a collective defense can guarantee security in Europe. We lacked this in the 1930s and paid a heavy price, one that Ukrainians are paying now.”
The ambassadors mentioned the “torments” currently being experienced by Ukraine in the form of “deportation, torture, child abduction” and “cultural erasure” which have awakened their countries’ “darkest memories and fears”, an apparent reference to the Soviet occupation of the Baltic States, which began in 1940.
Warning that Russia could again try to invade their countries, the diplomats said: “We are very aware that Russia’s war economy and its combat-ready military can quickly pivot from south to west. We agree with intelligence assessments that a major strategic challenge to our defense and deterrence could arise within three years or even less. We, from the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, have few natural borders and nowhere to retreat”.
With countries already subject to “hybrid attacks” such as cyber warfare “on a daily basis”, the diplomats quoted warned that an “existential challenge” to their independence “may initially appear ambiguous, masked by a blizzard of disinformation and other distractions”.
“Under these circumstances, confusion means defeat. Therefore, we, as well as our allies, must be prepared to respond quickly, convincingly and effectively to all types of threats”, added the three representatives of the Baltic countries.
To deter Russia, they called for “faster decision-making” in NATO and for all members to “invest in the forces and equipment to ensure that the alliance’s new defense plans become a reality.”
The ambassadors said the Baltic states’ “frontline” position meant they were “ready to fight to defend every inch and every soul” and “NATO must do the same”. They also said that the NATO leadership needed a “strong” Britain.
On Ukraine, the ambassadors emphasized that Russia “must not be allowed to win.” Ukraine’s accession to NATO at a future date will not only protect the country from further Russian aggression, but also strengthen the alliance, because “as a battle-hardened ally, Ukraine will contribute to our security.”
“A clear path to Ukraine’s accession must be a priority for the Alliance’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington this summer,” the diplomats urged.
The ambassadors’ intervention comes at a time of growing concern about Ukraine’s ability to continue standing up to Russia and uncertainty about the future of NATO.
A $60 billion package of US military aid to Ukraine remains stuck in Congress. At the same time, NATO members are trying to prepare for the possible re-election of Donald Trump, who has spoken several times about the idea of withdrawing the United States from the alliance.
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