Black swan, the new internet trend after the Baltimore bridge collapse. What conspiracy theories are circulating on social media

Far-right commentators are claiming Tuesday’s dramatic collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge is a “black swan” event, a niche phrase that has recently captured the imagination of internet conspiracy theorists.

“The ship was the target of a cyber attack. They turn off the lights and head deliberately towards the bridge supports. US foreign agents attack digital infrastructures. Nothing is certain,” wrote Andrew Tate on X, about six hours after the container ship collided with the bridge. “The Black Swan Event is imminent.”

“This is a BLACK SWAN event,” General Mike Flynn, Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, also wrote on X. Others, including Benny Johnson, Laura Loomer, and some verified QAnon-affiliated accounts, can be found on a search quickly with the “black swan event”, with many claiming that the bridge collapse was an act of terrorism.

“It seems deliberate to me. It’s probably a cyber attack. World War III has already begun,” Alex Jones of Infowars wrote on X in response to Andrew Tate’s post.

Officials, however, do not believe the bridge collapse is related to terrorism or was an intentional act; some theorized that the ship “lost propulsion”, causing it to veer off course.

“Black Swan” has become a trend on the X social network

As search and rescue teams continued to search for victims Tuesday morning, the “black swan event” trended on X, and Flynn explained his theory on Infowars.

The phrase “black swan event” was popularized in 2001 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese American statistician and essayist, to describe unforeseen events in the financial world with cascading consequences, such as the dot-com crash of 2000. He later extended the metaphor in the context of historical or significant national security events.

In recent months, conspiracy theorists have hijacked the concept and turned it into complex narratives that depict a clandestine network of powerful individuals secretly running the US government.

“Alex Jones is talking about ‘black swan events’ conceived from at least 2021 and peaking ‘since the beginning of the year,'” said Mike Rothschild, conspiracy theorist and author of Jewish Space Lasers.

Searches for “black swan event” have increased on Google

Google Trends reflects growing interest in the phrase, showing some significant spikes in searches for “black swan event” since December.

Rothschild said that according to conspiracy theories, the state creates “black swan events” to distract the public from plots, such as the mass disarmament of citizens, the stealing of Donald Trump’s votes or the adoption of martial law. Essentially, the black swan event, in this context, has become meaningless, just like its better-known cousin, the “false flag”, writes The Guardian.

“If the state has to do something to distract us from something else, they throw in a black swan,” Rothschild said. “The black swan has become part of the cabal’s arsenal, used to advance their evil agenda.”

Flynn began talking about black swan events last August, envisioning a scenario where “we don’t have an election in 2024” because of “another black swan event.” He doubled down on this “prediction” earlier this month during an appearance on The Benny Show (hosted by right-wing commentator Benny Johnson).

“These people are going to decide, there’s no way to win a legitimate and fair election, so let’s not have one, so in order to not have one, how do they create the conditions for them not to have one?” Flynn said. “They will try to come up with unknowns, they call them black swan events.”

The link between the “black swan” and Trump’s presidential bid

Last week, former Republican congressman Ron Paul appeared on former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s show and warned that Americans should prepare for some kind of “black swan” catastrophe — though he did not specify that the state would be behind a such catastrophes.

“I believe in the black swan theory. It’s going to come up and it’s not going to be controllable,” Paul told Carlson. “You have to understand what’s going on, you have to know what’s coming, it’s very, very dangerous, and that’s why I like to see smaller units of government.”

Paul and Flynn’s comments galvanized conspiracy circles online. “In the last 48 hours, both Ron Paul and General Flynn have warned of an upcoming ‘Black Swan event,’” Jacob Creech, an influential figure in the QAnon community, wrote on X. “The enemy will return and will not allow Trump to win. They have something planned.”

The growing popularity of the concept of a black swan event among conspiracy theorists coincides with an increase in the use of the phrase in popular parlance. Some security experts used it as they discussed the possibility of a destabilizing national event creating additional unrest during a contentious election year.

On CBS in December, investigative reporter Catherine Herridge suggested that 2024 could be a black swan event, citing continued levels of national security threats, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and continued polarization in the US. In January, Politico asked a range of experts, including historians and foreign policy analysts, to speculate on possible black swan events for the coming year.

The black swan event, however, is just a conspiracy with a narrative that took shape online on Tuesday, writes The Guardian. Fox TV host Maria Bartiromo tried to link the Baltimore bridge collapse to “wide open borders.” A Republican congressional candidate from Florida suggested that DEI — the shipping company’s diversity, equity and inclusion hiring policies — was to blame.

On Wednesday, as speculation ran high online, officials continued to investigate possible failures that may have led to the bridge’s collapse, which Baltimore Mayor Brandon M Scott called “an unimaginable tragedy.”

Pete Buttigieg, the US transportation secretary, told a news conference on Tuesday that the incident would have a major impact on supply chains and that the road to rebuilding would be costly and complex. Six people, all construction workers from Latin America, are reported to have died.

Publisher: MI

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