LIVETEXT War in Ukraine, Day 768 | Russia Will Only Be Able to Sustain a Major Offensive in One Direction, US Experts Say

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated, in its latest report on the situation at the front, that the Russian army will be able to sustain offensive actions in at most one direction, BBC Russia reports.

Experts from the American think tank suggest that such a direction could be the west of the Donetsk region, especially the area of ​​the city of Avdiivka, which recently came under the control of the Russian army.

ISW cites the failed attack by Moscow forces on March 30 near the village of Tonenkoe, near Avdiivka, as evidence that the Russian military can focus its main efforts there.

According to the report, Ukrainian troops managed to repel an attack by an entire Russian mechanized battalion.

“Geolocated images released on Sunday show a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along the road northwest of Tonenkoye,” ISW notes.

Experts say the scale of the March 30 attack is significant, as Russian forces have not resorted to such actions since the start of the Avdiivka offensive in October 2023.

“Ukraine’s ability to repel the attack on March 30, especially near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat quickly (…), is proof positive that the Ukrainian armed forces can defend themselves against future Russian sea offensive actions extent and of the offensive operation expected in the summer of 2024”, say the specialists.

The scale of the offensive by Russian forces near Avdiivka suggests that Russian military leaders consider this direction as a priority, and this is where the upcoming summer offensive could be focused, the authors of the ISW report suggest.

“Ukrainian officials recently warned of a concentration of Russian troops on the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bahmut, near Avdiivka and in western Zaporozhye region. But ISW continues to believe that the Russian military will be able to launch concentrated and large-scale offensive actions in a single operational direction due to Russia’s personnel problems and planning limitations,” ISW notes.

At least five people were injured in the Kharkiv region on March 31 after a Russian missile attack, reports The Kyiv Independent.

“In the afternoon, the enemy launched a rocket attack on a village in the Zmiiv district of our region,” Serhii Melnyk, the head of the Kharkiv military garrison, wrote on his Telegram channel. There are five known victims, he added.

Moscow has recently stepped up its attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, destroying a thermal power plant and all power substations in Kharkiv, according to Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov.

On March 29, state energy company Centrenergo reported that Russian troops destroyed the Zmiiv thermal power plant in the Kharkiv region during a large-scale attack.

Kirilo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service, said Russia is likely to resume Kalibr missile attacks on Ukraine in the near future as its stockpile of Kh-101 missiles is running low, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

Budanov stressed that Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service continues to monitor Russian missile storage production.

“We know exactly how many missiles they have. The fact that they did not undertake any attack on the energy infrastructure for over a year allowed them to stockpile a certain amount of ammunition. Unfortunately, the enemy has the resources to continue their efforts.

The Kalibr missiles have been stored all this time and are fully ready to be deployed. The Russians have made the decision to use Kh-101 missiles for now because the Kalibr missiles are less effective than the Kh-101. But I think that soon we will start seeing Kalibr again, because the number of Kh-101s has decreased significantly,” said Budanov.

Asked how many missiles the Russian Federation is capable of producing per month, Budanov said: “We are talking about operational-tactical missiles, so I can assure you that it is not 100 missiles per month. But it’s still a lot.”

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