Macron told Biden and Scholz that if Russia attacked French troops in Ukraine he would not turn to NATO or the US for help

Macron told Biden and Scholz that Western countries should adopt a position of strategic ambiguity toward Russia that leaves all military options on the table.

The idea would represent a radical change from the position that the Biden administration has adopted since the beginning of the war. Washington is trying to avoid actions that could provoke Moscow and escalate the conflict.

Biden questioned the need for a change in strategy, according to WSJ sources, amid fears it could lead to an escalation. Scholz also opposed the idea, saying it risks dividing allies and drawing NATO countries into the conflict.

When the summit took place in February, Macron stunned his allies by telling a news conference that no military option should be ruled out, including sending NATO troops to Ukraine.

Macron’s position has changed radically since the beginning of the conflict. The French president was initially a supporter of dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning that the allies “must not humiliate Russia”.

The war in Ukraine, a test for Europe

For Macron, the war in Ukraine has become a test of Europe’s ability to survive in a world where the security guarantees of the United States are no longer a certainty.

The French leader has long been worried that European countries risk turning into simple vassals of superpowers like the US and China if the continent does not develop its military capabilities. Now Macron is drawing attention to what many European officials privately fear: that decades of transatlantic security ties are at risk of unraveling.

European officials fear the US is moving towards isolationism if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

In recent weeks, Macron has begun using dark rhetoric to prepare the French public for the possibility of a more direct confrontation with Moscow, warning that if Ukraine falls, then a number of Central and Eastern European countries will be next.

“What is at stake in Ukraine? A war that is existential for Europe and for France,” Macron said during an interview at the Élysée Palace. “Because, if Russia were to win, the lives of the French would change. We would no longer have security in Europe.”

But France lagged behind the USA and Germany in terms of supplying weapons to Ukraine. France gave Ukraine 635 million euros in military aid during the first two years of the war, according to the Kiel Institute. This amount does not compare with 17.7 billion euros from Germany and 42.2 billion euros from the USA. French officials said that these calculations do not take into account the effectiveness of the weapons that France supplies.

Macron told Biden and Scholz that France would not ask for help

Macron called Biden and Scholz in February to tell them he wanted to use the Paris summit to send a message to Putin. Western capitals should stop ruling out military options, Macron said, telling leaders he wanted to make the new approach public after the summit.

Scholz responded that if Macron did this publicly, the chancellor and other leaders would be forced to reject his comments. He strongly advised Macron against the move, saying it could create a sense of division among allies.

But the prospect of having Western personnel in Ukraine, whether civilian or military, has raised the question of how allies should respond if someone were to die in a Russian attack.

The Biden administration was concerned that Russia could target French troops that could be sent to Ukraine, according to a US official. That would risk drawing France and potentially other Western nations into the conflict, the official said.

However, Macron told allies that no NATO or US involvement would be necessary if Russia targeted French troops, according to an official. France had casualties in military campaigns in Africa, for example, without calling on allies for help, Macron would have told them.

How the meeting at the Palace went Elysee

Tensions were high when Robert Fico, Olaf Scholz and other leaders arrived at the Élysée Palace on February 26. Macron shared his thoughts on the need for strategic ambiguity.

The Frenchman then asked Scholz, who was sitting next to him, to comment on the idea. Scholz vehemently opposed the idea, officials said. One by one, leaders, including those from the Netherlands, Poland and Greece, took the floor and politely rejected the idea. Estonia’s prime minister backed Macron, saying leaders need to stop saying what they won’t do in the conflict and focus on what they will do.

At the end of the summit, the French president went before the press where he was asked if the leaders present at the summit discussed the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, and Macron said that there is no consensus on this topic, but that nothing should be ruled out.

The next day, Scholz wrote on social networks that “there will be no ground troops from European countries or NATO” in Ukraine.

Macron was not impressed. He traveled to Prague and gave a speech in which he recalled how Europe was torn in two during the Cold War. Cowardice, Macron said, made half of Europe abandon the other in the face of Soviet domination.

“We are certainly approaching a moment, in our Europe, when we should not be cowards,” Macron said. “The war has returned to our territory”.