ISIS has set its sights on Europe and the US after the Moscow massacre. The ‘perfect storm’ threatening the Paris Olympics

The ISIS terrorist group has a “strong desire” to attack the US and other world powers, the former head of US Central Command warned last week, adding that the danger “is inevitable”. Analysts believe that the militants are now focusing more on Europe and highlight events such as the Olympic Games, which will be held in Paris this year, as possible targets for terrorists, writes CNN.

The threat from the ISIS group, also known as the Islamic State, appeared to have diminished as all attention turned to Ukraine, Gaza and the upcoming elections in the US and Europe.

The attack in Moscow more than a week ago, however, reminded the world of the danger still posed by Islamist extremist terrorism and of the ISIS-K group’s ambitions, which extend far beyond its camps in the mountains of Afghanistan.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack in Moscow. The fact that citizens of Tajikistan were involved shows that the militants were most likely part of ISIS-Khorasan, a branch of the Islamic State that mostly recruits members from Central Asian countries and has also planned attacks on Russian territory in last.

Before the Crocus City Hall massacre, ISIS-K tried to attack other places in Russia and the rest of Europe. The current head of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), General Erik Kurilla, recently said that ISIS-K has the ability and will to attack the US and other Western countries in just six months without any warning.

“We should believe them when they say that,” retired US General Frank McKenzie, former head of CENTCOM, also told ABC News, adding that the militants would not hesitate to launch other terrorist attacks.

“I think the danger is growing. It started growing as soon as I left Afghanistan – [plecarea] took the pressure off ISIS-K. So I think we should expect other attempts of this nature against the United States as well as our partners and other foreign nations. I think it’s inevitable,” McKenzie said.

UN and other experts – including Russian security services – estimate that ISIS-K has between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters. Sanaullah Ghafari became the leader of the group in 2020. Despite his death being reported several times in the past, terrorism analysts believe he is still alive and leading the militants.

Although both the United States and the Taliban have tried to flush out the militants from the areas in eastern Afghanistan where they are hiding, ISIS-K “remains a resilient organization, able to adapt to changing conditions and evolve to survive difficult circumstances,” according to the Counter-Terrorism Center at West Point, USA.

“In Afghanistan, we have almost no ability to see and strike in that country,” Gen. McKenzie said of conditions in that country after American troops left.

“If you can keep the pressure on them … in their homeland and their base, that would make it difficult for them to launch these kinds of attacks,” McKenzie explained. “Unfortunately, we don’t put that pressure on them anymore, so they’re free to increase their power and plan and coordinate.”

ISIS-K plans attacks in Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia, with the group using a very aggressive propaganda campaign in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia, where it recruits most of its members.

The most devastating terrorist attack they carried out was the Kabul airport suicide bombing in 2021, when they killed nearly 200 people, including 13 American soldiers.

Last year, ISIS-K detonated a bomb during an election rally in Baujur, Pakistan, killing 60 people, and expanded its presence in Baluchistan province on the border with Iran.

In January, ISIS claimed two suicide attacks in the Iranian city of Kerman, where they killed 90 people and injured 200 others.

But ISIS-K has much bigger ambitions and wants to attack targets in Europe and the US. Last year in July, seven men were arrested in Germany on suspicion of planning major attacks in coordination with ISIS-K. All the suspects were from Central Asia.

This month, two Afghan nationals were detained, also in Germany, after they were accused of preparing to attack Sweden’s parliament in revenge for incidents in which several Korans were burned.

One of them joined ISIS last year, with the attacks the two planned carried out in consultation with ISIS-K operatives.

A secret US Department of Defense document that was leaked to the public last year revealed that ISIS has developed a network of resources outside of Afghanistan that it can use to attack targets abroad.

After the attack in Moscow, France, host of the 2024 Summer Olympics, raised its terror threat level to maximum. “The Islamist danger is real … we are constantly preparing for all scenarios,” said French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who said thousands of troops were ready to take part in anti-terror missions.

The year 2024 appears to be a “perfect storm” in terms of terrorist threats: ISIS-K has become an increasingly powerful group, there is much anger among people radicalized by the situation in Gaza, and several former jihadists have been released from prisons in Europe, after serving their sentences.

Russia is particularly vulnerable to ISIS-K attacks after siding with the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad during the civil war and after its brutal wars in Chechnya. Russia’s support for authoritarian regimes in Central Asia, which ISIS-K sees as “puppets” of Moscow, has further fueled the militants’ hatred of Vladimir Putin.

The group is now trying to infiltrate more and more into Russian territory. Last month, the Russian security services (FSB) said they had killed two ISIS-K operatives in the Kaluga region who were planning to attack a synagogue in Moscow.

Editor: Raul Nețoiu

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