Satellite images of the Kerch bridge show that Ukraine would have no reason to attack it. Russia uses another route to transport ammunition

Moscow is no longer using the Kerch Bridge, which links mainland Russia to Crimea, to supply its frontline troops and is now using land routes, satellite images obtained by The Independent show.

The measure was most likely taken out of fear of Ukraine’s repeated attacks on the Kerch bridge.

The analysis of satellite images shows that the bridge that Russia built after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 is almost completely closed. So it may no longer be a military target for Ukrainian troops running out of ammunition, according to analysts at Molfar, Ukraine’s largest private intelligence agency.

The images taken by Maxar specialists – which were analyzed by Molfar and passed on to The Independent – ​​show that almost no military freight trains have crossed the bridge’s railway track for over three months.

During this period, only a single Russian freight train with approximately 55 fuel wagons was seen crossing the bridge on 29 February.

There was no movement involving Russian military assets on the bridge in March or April, according to Molfar. The agency, based in Dnipro, used a combination of Maxar images, the number of wagons and the identification of the cargo.

Russia’s use of the bridge has dropped significantly since Ukraine attacked it with drones on July 17, 2023 and blew up a section of the road and railway line, the analysis said. After the attack in which a couple died and their daughter was injured, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the Kerch Bridge a “legitimate military target” and claimed that by linking Russia to Crimea, it “brings war, not peace ”, so it must be neutralized. “This is the route used to fuel the war with ammunition and this is done daily,” he said.

Ukraine had attacked the bridge, which spans 19 km, detonating a truck loaded with explosives. Four people died in the October 2022 attack. Last August, Kiev launched three missiles to bomb the bridge, but they were intercepted by Russia.

The closure of the bridge earlier this year is a consequence of last year’s attack. Thus, the satellite images show that no train passed through it in the July-August period. Before the July 17 attack, Russia operated more than 40 trains carrying weapons across the bridge every day, said Vasyl Maliuk, the head of Ukraine’s security service. Traffic is now reduced to just four passenger trains and one general freight train per day, Maliuk said.

The decision to stop using the Kerchi Bridge to refuel Russian forces corresponded with an increase in cargo traffic through Taman in the Rostov region, Molfar CEO Artem Starosiek told The Independent.

Kiev should now focus its attention on Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol, where Russia is opening new rail lines to connect these occupied Ukrainian regions with Crimea and mainland Russia, Mr Starosiek said. The new rail line, which runs from Akimivka in the city of Melitopol and extends to Berdyansk and Mariupol before reaching Rostov in Russia, is likely to be used by Russian forces for a new offensive expected to begin this summer.

The line, which includes 63 km of new track and around 140 km of repaired track, was tested in March when the first freight train passed through it. The line is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

Artem Starosiek suggested Ukraine would benefit more from targeting those land routes rather than wasting resources on the Crimean bridgehead. “These tracks are currently a more serious threat than the defunct Crimean bridge railway,” he said.