In the end, Dustin Poirier won the sweepstakes for the next crack at UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. The popular veteran will get his shot at the Russian on June 1, when the Octagon touches down in New Jersey for UFC 302.
Poirier is already a big underdog, and that’s understandable. While he scored a dazzling knockout victory over surging contender Benoit Saint Denis in his last fight, that was preceded by a jarring knockout loss to Justin Gaethje.
The 35-year-old also came up short in his last two bids at the lightweight belt, suffering submission losses to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is now Makhachev’s training partner and mentor.
The champion, meanwhile, has been the picture of dominance of late. He recently extended his win streak to 13 straight with a pair of victories over former pound-for-pound king Alexander Volkanovski and a submission win over Oliveira before that.
The 32-year-old looks increasingly unbeatable each time he steps inside the Octagon, having bolstered his world-class grappling with a vicious striking game.
While Makhachev looks like the safe pick in this fight, Poirier has proven time and again that he is capable of beating any lightweight, and there will be plenty of fans who pick him to defeat the champion in what will most likely be his final bid at of the UFC title.
Scroll on to see how these two lightweight stars match up on paper and for our best shot at a prediction.
Makhachev has made some big improvements in the striking department. They were on full display in his recent two-fight series with Volkanovski, most notably in their second encounter, when he leveled the beefed-up featherweight with a first-round head kick.
After those contests, there’s no question that he’s capable of knocking Poirier out, particularly given that a head kick recently felled the American.
Having said that, there’s also no denying Poirier is the more proven striker. While Makhachev has won five of his 25 victories by knockout or TKO, only a handful of those have been set up on the feet.
The American, on the other hand, has won over half of his 30 victories by knockout or TKO, and many of those have been clean knockouts on the feet. His win over Saint-Denis on March 9 is the most recent example of how dangerous he is on the feet, but his resume is full of other examples, including wins over Conor McGregor, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Yancy Medeiros and Diego Ferreira.
Poirier also has a much higher output than Makhachev in the striking department, landing 5.45 significant strikes per minute compared to the champion’s 2.46, according to UFCStats.
Again, this is not to say Makhachev can’t win this one on the feet, but when we’re breaking this matchup down to its parts, the champion is clearly the less dangerous striker.
Edge: Poirier
Just as Makhachev has proven he can strike despite being a grappler, Poirier has shown he can grapple despite being a striker.
The challenger has finished seven fights by submission, including three in the first round, and has shown particular proficiency for the D’arce choke, which he used to beat down the likes of Jonathan Brookins and Pablo Garza at featherweight.
That being said, Makhachev is clearly the superior submission fighter of the two. The fact that he submitted Charles Oliveira, one of the best submission artists in MMA history, is pretty much all the proof you need, but there is plenty of other evidence.
The Russian has defeated 10 other men by submission in his career, including tough tests such as Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises and Drew Dober, all of whom he has submitted since the start of 2021.
Interestingly, Poirier attempts more submissions than Makhachev—1.4 per 15 minutes to the champion’s 1, per UFCStats.com—but all that really proves is that the Russian is better at making his attempts count.
When you consider the fact that Poirier has also lost three fights by submission, including his two previous bids at the belt, this one gets even clearer.
Edge: Makhachev
There are few people in MMA today who are as good at wrestling as Makhachev.
Much like Nurmagomedov, he is known for his frenetic chain wrestling and suffocating top control, which are so effective together that many of his opponents are more worried about stuffing his takedowns than their game plans.
The proof is in the numbers.
Makhachev has attempted 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, per UFC Stats, and succeeds on 60 percent of his attempts. That’s quite a difference from Poirier’s 1.33 attempts per 15 minutes and 36 percent success rate.
The Russian also routinely racks up significant amounts of control time in his fights. For example, he controlled Volkanovski on the mat for nearly eight minutes in their first encounter and spent over five minutes of his eight-minute fight with Oliveira controlling the action on the canvas.
While Poirier has proven to be a decent wrestler when he needs to be, there is no question he’s many steps behind Makhachev in this department.
Edge: Makhachev
Poirier’s X-Factor: Make the Last Shot Count
At 35 years old and with two failed bids at the lightweight belt behind him, UFC 302 will most likely mark Poirier’s last chance to win the division’s title. That puts quite a bit of pressure on him, but it could also make him more dangerous.
While he may have been reluctant to take unnecessary risks when he challenged Nurmagomedov and Oliveira, that might not be the case here, as he will most likely never get another opportunity.
We may see a Poirier who lays it all on the line—whether that means winging wild hooks at his opponent’s head or jumping for guillotines when the takedowns start coming. One way or the other, that could be a bad thing for the champion.
Makhachev’s X-Factor: Focus on the Task at Hand
Makhachev’s first two title defenses have come against former featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski. Those victories were extremely impressive, but the fact is they came against a much smaller opponent.
Despite the fact that he has yet to defend the belt against a legitimate lightweight contender, he is already talking like he’s cleared out the weight class, calling for a shot against welterweight champ Leon Edwards. That fight might happen soon, but the lightweight champion would be unwise to look past Poirier, who is one of the most dangerous men he’s met in the cage.
If the Russian is anything but focused on the task at hand, he risks napping under the Jumbotron.
There is a real chance Poirier could win this fight by knockout, especially if he decides to go for broke, knowing he will likely never get another chance to fight for the lightweight belt.
However, the far more likely outcome, much as it might pain the American’s fans, is that he is taken down, controlled and either battered to a TKO loss or submitted—just like most others Makhachev has fought lately.
Given Poirier’s unfortunate history of tapping out in title fights, we’ll go with the latter option. The American might land some nice shots early, but before the end of the third round, he’ll be locked up in a rear-naked or arm-triangle choke with no choice but to tap or nap.
Prediction: Makhachev by submission, Rd. 2
