South Carolina vs. Indiana preview: Spread, odds and expert picks as Dawn Staley’s team looks to stay undefeated

So far in this 2024 NCAA Tournament, maybe no team looks more dominant than Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks. They’re on a revenge mission after losing to Iowa in the Final Four last year after an undefeated regular season. Undefeated again, Staley and her squad steamrolled through the first two rounds of the tournament, winning both games by 45-plus points. Does Indiana have a chance? We’re breaking down what it will take to stop the Gamecocks in the Sweet 16 and our picks for the winner, point spread and total. (Because, let’s be serious, this won’t be a great game to wager on the moneyline.)

From our Sweet 16 preview:

The Hoosiers picked up a big win against Oklahoma in a game that went down to the wire with 21 lead changes and 10 ties. In the end, forward Mackenzie Holmes was sensational for the team, scoring a game-high 29 points. Guard Sydney Parrish added 17, helping push the Hoosiers to their third Sweet 16 in the last four seasons.

It only gets harder from here, though. The Hoosiers match up with undefeated South Carolina, which just beat North Carolina by almost 50 (!) points and remains the heavy favorite to win it all. How will the Hoosiers stop star center Kamilla Cardoso? IU’s tallest player, Arielle Wisne, is still two inches shorter than 6-foot-7 Kamilla Cardoso and averages only 1.8 minutes per game. The Hoosier’s tallest starters, Holmes and Yarden Garzon, are both 6-foot-3. IU also ranks 316th nationally for 3-point defense, which is a problem when the Gamecocks have Te-Hina Paopao on the other side knocking down 46.7 percent of her attempts from deep.

– Grace Raynor

Sabreena Merchant’s keys to the game

Can the Hoosiers even keep it close?

North Carolina lost by seven to South Carolina during the regular season. That margin, albeit on the Tar Heels’ home court, ballooned to 47 in the second round. This is the level that the Gamecocks are operating on. It doesn’t matter if an opponent can survive one wave because South Carolina’s bench scored 51 points in the second-round victory. For comparison, Indiana’s bench scored one. The Hoosiers have to defend the 3-point line. In their close wins, the Gamecocks generally made six or fewer 3-pointers. But if the total creeps higher than that, South Carolina has too much offensive firepower. Indiana generally likes to play a free-flowing game. However, if the Hoosiers can’t slow the pace and keep the offense inside the arc, there is no chance of beating the No. 1 overall seed.

How to watch South Carolina vs. Indian

What: Albany 1 Region, Sweet 16

Tip off time: 5 p.m. ET Friday

TV: ESPN

Location: Albany, NY

You can buy tickets to any tournament game here.

South Carolina vs. Indiana odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks and projections

Grace’s Pick: South Carolina to win

Austin Mock’s projection: Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the chances for each team to make it through each round of the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the women’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here is our projected score:

• South Carolina 81.8, Indiana 65.3

Players to watch

South Carolina

• Kamilla Cardoso, senior center, SEC Defensive Player of the Year, first-team All-SEC
• Raven Johnson, sophomore guard, second-team All-SEC
• Te-Hina Paopao, senior guard, second-team All-SEC
• Ashlyn Watkins, sophomore forward, second-team All-SEC

Indian

• Mackenzie Holmes, senior forward, first-team All-Big Ten
• Sara Scalia, senior guard, first-team All-Big Ten
• Chloe Moore-McNeil, senior guard, second-team All-Big Ten

More NCAA basketball tournament coverage

(Top photo: Eakin Howard / Getty Images, Jeremy Hogan / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images)