Romania will defend Moldova militarily in case of an attack by Russia – Interview

Cristian Barna is a graduate of the Mathematics and Sociology faculties of the University of Bucharest, former vice-rector at the National Academy of Information and teaches at the Babeș Bolyai University in Cluj and the one in Bucharest.

I have transcribed and edited for clarity the most important statements about the complicated political situation in the region. You also have the entire interview in video format.

The three scenarios

There was a workshop on the topic of Transnistria at the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of Bucharest where I presented three work scenarios to the students.

The first scenario was that the Transnistrians, probably, if they discovered and wanted to understand what a life in freedom and well-being means, would join their neighbors with arms and baggage and there would be a united Moldova, which, without problems, could access European Union in the shortest possible time.

The second scenario it was the existing status quo between Transnistria and the Republic of Moldova, between Chisinau and Tiraspol.

The third scenario, a negative one, is that of a junction of the Russian army with the forces of Transnistria, of the opening of a new front of the Kremlin’s forces in Ukraine, at the mouths of the Danube, in the Bugeac area.

It is a junction with Transnistria through southern Ukraine, bypassing Odesa and Nikolaev, which did not fall into the hands of the Russian Federation.

I said that this scenario could still be possible, because we see, recently, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet has been changed. This means that Putin is not happy with the way things are going. There is also information that a river division is being formed on the Dnieper.

VIDEO. Romania jumps to Moldova’s aid – Source: Spotmedia.ro

A change of strategy

And a new situation arises. Western chancelleries are already trying to discourage a possible Russian action towards Tiraspol, saying that NATO is ready to take decisive steps to prevent the war in Ukraine from expanding.

The belated manner in which they acted in Ukraine made the Westerners change their strategy and stop waiting.

I think that this time, neither NATO, nor the European Union, obviously, nor Romania can afford to lose Moldova. Let it be conquered by Russia, regardless of what happens in Ukraine.

Moldova, defended at all costs

Macron’s statement that we will be ready for NATO soldiers to act must also be understood from this perspective.

There are already talks from last year, if we remember, in which both President Klaus Iohannis and other Western leaders said very clearly that Moldova will be defended at all costs. Why? Because this showed the Russian Federation that it can no longer do anything.

Drone attack

Until this year, when they started receiving anti-aircraft defense and interception elements, Moldovan authorities did not really see what was happening in their own airspace.

If NATO is able to attack and shoot down drones before they enter a member state’s airspace, then there would be a major change in modus operandi.

But for that, Ukraine must also allow this, being a sovereign, independent state and being its airspace. And it is possible to allow such an action.

VIDEO. The Republic of Moldova will be defended in case of an attack by Russia – Source: Spotmedia.ro

A precedent

I firmly believe that if Putin tries to move militarily towards the Republic of Moldova, the Dniester will remain the border.

Someone told me that Romania does nothing but what NATO asks it to do. It is true, but if we look carefully in the recent history of the world, the United States attacked Iraq, without doing it together with NATO. I mean the military invasion of 2002. So he did it without NATO. There is a precedent.

How can Moldova be defended?

If the Republic of Moldova, a sovereign state, will ask another sovereign state for help. NATO does not necessarily have to be involved as an entity, although, I stress, I don’t think NATO will have any problem acting.

I also don’t think NATO will have any emotion that, if Russia moves towards Transnistria, it will defend a country, a sovereign and independent country from a military aggression.

But, on the other hand, only a coalition of NATO states can intervene, not all of them. For example, France, USA and Romania.

Information warfare

The dangers are very high in the Republic of Moldova, because it is also an election year, and the destabilizing actions are obvious.

There is intoxication through media resources and social networks, reaching Russian speakers very easily.

The message promoted by the Kremlin in Moldova is that the European Union and NATO are aggressors, and this message will create problems by scaring the population that if Moldova takes steps in the western direction, it will suffer the fate of Ukraine, and this makes people to be somewhat frightened.

But in addition to this informational war that we are discussing, where it is very difficult for someone to figure out what is truth and what is a lie, there is also a physical danger.

A lot of money has been invested in destabilization and will continue to be invested.

We all know that Ilan Shor is the spearhead of the Russian Federation in Moldova, and he is preparing destabilizing actions through protests and violence.

VIDEO. In the south of Moldova, the strategic situation is complicated, and Russia can develop an attack plan – Source: Spotmedia.ro

Russia wants Transnistria

The Republic of Moldova is significantly helped in the line of the security service. That is, the 80 athletes, I give an example, by the success of stopping them at the airport and their return from the road means that important destabilizing actions that were to take place in Moldova were foiled.

From the latest information it appears that these destabilizing movements will come from Comrat, Gagauzia, which will be much more difficult to control, given the fact that the instigators can easily move within the country.

It all depends very much on the Russian Federation, how aggressive it wants to be in this area.

Recent calculations and actions show that they could settle for Transnistria and Gagauzia.