“The Russians would conquer the Baltic countries in seven days. NATO’s reaction time, on the other hand, is ten” / “We are losing ground”

Major General Vadim Skibitski, the deputy chief of military intelligence in Kiev, gave a controversial interview to TheEconomist, reports La Repubblica.

First, Skibitsky admits that he “does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the ground.” Even if – the article says – Ukrainian soldiers “succeed in pushing the Russians beyond the country’s borders, an increasingly remote possibility, this would not stop the conflict. Such wars can only end with an agreement” But Skibitsky raises another alarm. Article 5 of NATO, according to which a member country is defended by the Alliance in the event of a military attack, is not enough for him: “The Russians would conquer the Baltic countries in seven days. NATO’s reaction time, on the other hand, is ten”.

The deputy deputy head of military intelligence in Kiev is realistic: things on the ground are bad, “they are as complicated as in the first days of the Russian invasion”, in February 2022, “and they could get even worse”: ” Our problem is very simple. We have no weapons. We knew that April and May would be difficult months for us.”

This is also why, like Avdiivka, the city of Chasiv Yar in Donbass may soon fall. Perhaps in time for the celebration on May 9 of ‘Victory Day’ in Moscow, which commemorates the defeat of the Nazis in World War II: “Maybe it won’t fall today, or tomorrow. But it certainly depends on the weaponry and supplies we have at our disposal.”

According to Skibitski, Russia is already planning future attacks in the Kharkiv and Sami regions in the northeast of the country. The chosen moment will depend on how strong Ukrainian resistance will be in Donbass. But a major offensive by Moscow, “with the 514,000 soldiers recruited for this war,” in these regions “could take place between the end of May and the beginning of June.”

Skibitski adds for the British weekly that “May will be a decisive month, as Russia tries to destabilize Ukraine on three fronts: the military one, despite the aid package of more than 60 billion dollars voted by the American Congress: it will take time for that arms and ammunition reach the front’. The second front is to weaken the country domestically and President Zelenski, whose presidential term theoretically expires on May 20. And, thirdly, to “isolate Ukraine internationally”.

As for the outcome of the conflict, Skibitski seems laconic. In the current context, Kiev on the field will not be able to cope alone. But, he adds, “Ukraine and Russia are now fighting for the best negotiating position.” Which, in his opinion, “cannot come before the end of 2025”.

Russia’s military capability will peak in early 2026 and then decline due to a lack of materials and engineers. “Then both sides could run out of weapons. But as things stand now, Ukraine will remain the first without them. However, we will continue to fight. We have no choice,” he says.