Russia has a window of opportunity at a crucial time in the war. Two time trials are now taking place on the Ukrainian front – MAP

Moscow’s recent advances in eastern Ukraine reflect the Kremlin’s desire to exploit a window of opportunity to continue attacks before the first batch of a new US military aid package arrives in Ukraine, according to analyzes published by the Kyiv Post, New York Times and Institute for the Study of War.

Officials and war observers have repeatedly warned that Kiev’s forces will go through a difficult time with possible territorial losses until the Ukrainian military is able to strengthen itself – with new Western weapons and a new round of mobilization.

Now it has already become clear that this dark period has already begun.

On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that its forces had captured the village of Semenivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region – one of three small towns. Ukraine admitted it had withdrawn on Sunday to reduce the number of casualties in heavy fighting in the area west of Avdiivka, a town captured by Russian forces in February.

In fact, in the past week, Russian troops have captured or entered about six villages on the eastern front, a situation that illustrates the deteriorating situation in the region for the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces.

There was no need for Kiev to admit this, but Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Sîrski did so explicitly anyway.

Military experts cited by the New York Times noted that Moscow’s recent advances reflect the Kremlin’s desire to exploit a window of opportunity to continue attacks before the first batch of the new US military aid package arrives in Ukraine.

A steady advance of the Russians near Avdiivka

General Sîrski explained that the “most difficult situation” at the moment is in the area of ​​villages west of Avdiivka, the town captured by Russia in February after months of fierce fighting.

He said Russia had deployed up to four brigades to the area with the aim of advancing on Ukrainian military logistics centers such as the eastern city of Pokrovsk.

After Russia captured Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces withdrew to a new defensive line about five kilometers to the west along a series of small villages, but this line was now overrun by Russian forces.

General Sîrski said on Sunday that his troops had withdrawn from Berdichi and Semenivka, the last two villages in the area not yet under full Russian control.

Serhii Kuzan, president of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a non-governmental think tank, said the Ukrainian command had to make “a choice between a bad situation and an even worse one” and decided to lose territory rather than soldiers.

To further complicate the situation, Russian forces managed to break through the northern part of this defensive line, exploiting a breach in the Ukrainian positions and rapidly advancing to the village of Oheretine.

The choice of Moscow

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, explained on Sunday that Russia’s advance in Oheretine presented the Russian command with a choice: to continue moving west towards Pokrovsk or north towards Ceasiv Yar, a city ​​which is already under a relentless Russian assault in recent weeks.

According to Ukrainian officials, up to 25,000 Russian troops are engaged in an offensive on Ceasiv Iar, located about 11 kilometers west of Bahmut on strategic high ground.

Its capture would place the town of Kosteantînivka, about 10 miles to the southwest, in Moscow’s direct line of fire. The city is the main supply point for Ukrainian forces along much of the eastern front.

ISW has already warned that the loss of Kosteantînivka would be a major operational setback for Ukraine that would be difficult to repair.

An advance from Oheretine to the north could allow Russian forces to attack Kosteantînivka from the south in a partial encirclement movement.

One thing is certain, Moscow is in a good situation.

“Russian forces currently have opportunities to make significant operational gains near Ceasiv Iar and are preparing reserves to support a large-scale offensive effort expected this summer,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its report on Sunday.

Two races against the clock

In the analysis dedicated to the current situation, the Ukrainian publication Kyiv Post writes that two races are currently taking place on the front.

On the one hand, Russia is trying to capture as much territory as possible before much of the US aid reaches Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian forces fighting along the front line are reportedly exhausted. Then the Ukrainians have been fighting for months with very little ammunition, and sometimes virtually no ammunition.

Basically, the Kyiv Post writes, the Ukrainians held the line with a combination of infantry with lighter weapons and drones.

At the same time, writes a publication from Kiev, the Ukrainians themselves complicated the situation because they did not prepare reserve forces.

The government has hesitated too much on the issue of conscription – which means that the Ukrainian forces lack a large number of servicemen.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are trying to get hold of the American aid as soon as possible, in order to send it as quickly as possible to the dangerous points.

This urgency was heard in the voice of Zelenski on Monday, who declared, during a joint press conference in Kiev, together with the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, that the situation on the battlefield directly depends on the speed of ammunition deliveries .

“Timely support for our military. Today I still don’t see anything positive about it. There are deliveries, they started easily, this process must be accelerated,” he declared.

Stoltenberg: It is not “too late for Ukraine to win

The NATO Secretary General admitted that the aid was long overdue.

“I will be very honest with President Zelensky and also with the Rada (Ukrainian parliament), saying that NATO allies have not delivered what we promised in the last months,” Stoltenberg said on the train to Kiev on Monday.

The NATO chief pointed to the US aid bill and an announcement last week by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of a “record” commitment to Kiev.

He also said that Germany had agreed to provide one more Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, while the Netherlands had increased its military aid to Kiev. He said he expected other “new commitments to follow”.

“This will make a difference – just as the lack of support made a difference,” he said, alluding to Ukrainian battlefield failures in recent months.

Stoltenberg at the same time told reporters that it is not “too late for Ukraine to win.

“But that is why it is so urgent that NATO allies now do what we have promised and turn these commitments into real deliveries of arms and ammunition, and I am now confident that this will happen,” he said.