Military analysts say Russia is trying to destroy Ukrainian military supply lines before US aid arrives

Photo source: facebook.com/Operational Command South Ukraine.

“The area is central to Ukraine’s defense line along this section of the front line and has been a primary target for Russian forces since they captured the industrial town of Avdiivka in February – about 10 miles away.”writes CNN.

DeepState claims that the success of the Ukrainian counterattack by the 100th Brigade prevented the Russians from advancing faster westward along the front line at Ocheretine. However, analysts point out that the Ukrainian armed forces need US military assistance to arrive in Ukraine as soon as possible.

CNN quotes a Ukrainian officer from Ukraine’s “Eastern Command” as saying unofficially that if Russian forces succeed in capturing and holding Ocheretine, they could cut off some vital logistics routes connecting three key military centers – Kostiantinivka, Pokrovsk and Velika Novosilka.

CNN writes that both Ukrainian and Russian reports indicate that Ukraine was able to halt the Russian advance around Chiasov Yar, about 40 kilometers to the north.

Analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu referred to the ongoing Russian offensive near Chiasov Yar, Avdiivka and Donetsk and announced Russia’s intention to to intensify its campaign of attacks to disrupt the Ukrainian military logistics chain.

American experts believe that Shoigu is trying to create illusions, as not all Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine are equally successful, but the goal is probably to intensify the current offensive in these areas in the coming weeks to take advantage of the disadvantages that the Ukrainians were facing until the arrival of a new US military aid.

Given Shoigu’s announcement, they expect Russian forces to shift their focus and instead step up attacks on Ukrainian logistics centers and weapons depots to hit Ukraine’s transport infrastructure, logistics and military centers.

The Russians will try to cause as much damage as possible to Ukraine’s defense infrastructure and industrial base before the expected arrival of US military aid, US analysts say.

“Russian military commanders may hope that coordinated efforts will limit Ukraine’s ability to deploy sufficient personnel and equipment to critical frontline areas and delay the enhancement of Ukrainian armed forces’ capabilities that U.S. assistance will provide.”say ISW analysts.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reminds us that Russia’s offensive plans are not limited to Donbas. Correspondents of the Kharkiv newspaper recall that last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “became the highest-ranking Kremlin official to state that Moscow intends to conquer Kharkiv.”

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