Russia will be able to launch a large-scale offensive in one direction

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report on the events on the front in Ukraine that during the offensive that could take place this summer, the Russian military will be able to sustain offensive actions in at most one operational direction , writes the BBC.

ISW experts suggest that such a direction could be the west of the Donetsk region, especially the area of ​​the city of Avdiivka, which recently came under the control of the Russian army.

The Institute for the Study of War cites the failed attack by Russian forces on March 30 near the village of Tonenke, located near Avdiivka, as evidence that the Russian military can focus its main efforts there.

As stated in the report, in this area, Ukrainian troops would have managed to repel an attack by an entire mechanized battalion of Russian troops. Regarding the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ISW authors write that on March 30, near Tonenke, the Russian army sent 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles into battle.

“Geolocated images released on Sunday show a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along the road northwest of Tonenke,” ISW said. The Ukrainian military says that during the attack, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles, and that the attempted frontal attack did not result in a breach of the Ukrainian defense line.

According to experts from the Institute for the Study of War, the scale of the attack carried out on March 30 is a significant fact, since Russian forces have not resorted to such actions since the beginning of the offensive on Avdiivka in October 2023.

“Ukraine’s ability to repel the attack on March 30, especially near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw quickly […]is proof positive that the Ukrainian armed forces can defend themselves against future large-scale Russian offensive actions and the offensive operation expected in the summer of 2024,” experts say.

The scale of the offensive by Russian forces near Avdiivka suggests that Russian military leaders consider this direction as a priority, and this is where the upcoming summer offensive could be focused, the authors of the ISW report suggest.

Ukrainian officials recently warned of a concentration of Russian troops on the Kharkiv-Lugansk axis near Bahmut, near Avdiivka and in western Zaporozhye region. But ISW continues to believe that the Russian military will be able to launch concentrated and large-scale offensive actions in a single operational direction, due to Russia’s personnel problems and planning limitations.