What would Romania look like with only 12 million inhabitants? See the scenarios Statistics on the demographic future of the country

The resident population (those who actually live in the country, excluding those who have gone to work abroad) of Romania was just over 19 million inhabitants at the beginning of this year, according to the data of the National Institute of Statistics. The fact that fewer inhabitants are born than die (natural increase is negative), our luck (in terms of demography) is the immigrants brought to work in the country. In fact, thanks to emigrants, Romania’s population increased for the first time after many years of decline. In fact, our country loses a million people every 10 years.And the INS scenarios for the future are quite gloomy. We could end up with just over 12 million inhabitants in 35 years. See in the text how many Romanians could lose each county.

The statisticians made an anticipation of the fertility level, life expectancy at birth and the long-term migratory balance (for at least 12 months) at the level of each county. By adding up the projected resident population obtained for each county, the projected resident population of Romania until the year 2060 was established.

INS works with several scenarios. It is most likely the “intermediate”, between the constant, optimistic, medium and then the pessimistic.

The constant variant represents a “benchmark variant”, with the role of comparing the results obtained by maintaining the values ​​of fertility, life expectancy and net migration recorded within each county. In the constant version, Romania would reach 11.0 million inhabitants in 2060. In the optimistic version, for the year 2060, the result of the design at the national level is 16.3 million inhabitants, and in the pessimistic version, 12.5 million inhabitants.

The average version represents the most plausible version of the population evolution, based on which Romania would have, in 2060, a resident population of 13.8 million inhabitants. In the intermediate version, the resident population is estimated, in 2060, at 15.4 million inhabitants.

In all the design variants, the resident population of Romania will be reduced by values ​​between 3.6 million people (the optimistic variant) and 12 million people (the pessimistic variant).

Photo caption: population decline in each county (weight) between 2024 and 2060

• Population decrease at county level, in the medium version (the most plausible) design, will oscillate between -61.3% (Teleorman) and -7.5% (Iasi).

• In 2060, the city of Bucharest would continue to have the largest population (1.38 million people), followed by the county of Iasi (whose population will decrease to 728,700 people in 2060).

• Tulcea would record a population reduction of approximately 97,800 people and will continue to remain the least populated county.

• The resident population of the city of Bucharest and that of Prahova county will register the biggest reduction until the year 2060, by -464,300 people and -320,300 people, respectively.

• By sex, in the average version of the design, the male population would decrease in 2060 by -31.4%, and the female population would decrease by -29.6%.

• The counties of Cluj, Iaşi, Sibiu and Timiș will register the smallest decreases in the female population (below -10.0%), and Iaşi county will register the only decrease below 10% in the male population (by -6.1%). The counties with the biggest decreases, both for the female and male population, will be the counties of Teleorman (-60.0% for the female population and -62.6% for the male population) and Olt (-56.7% for the female population and -60.2% for men).

• The share of the female population will register significant decreases. In the year 2060, in the counties of Giurgiu, Iasi, Sălaj, Tulcea and Vaslui, the share of the female population will be below 50.0% of the total resident population. The counties of Dolj, Gorj and the city of Bucharest will register the highest share of the female population (over 53.0%).

• In the medium version the adult resident population in Romania will be 7920.4 thousand people in 2060 (with 5418.2 thousand people less than in 2015), and the share will decrease from 67.3% (2015) to 57.4% (2060) .

• The population aged 15-64 will register a decrease in all counties of the country except Ilfov county. In 2060, the adult resident population will be around 400,000 people. By 2060, a sharper reduction of the working-age population is anticipated in the counties in the south of the country: Gorj (-67.9%), Teleorman (-65.7%), Brăila (-63.3%) and Vâlcea (-62.7%).

• The West (724.9 thousand people) and South-West Oltenia (541.8 thousand people) regions will continue to be in the group of regions with the lowest number of working-age population in 2060, at the opposite pole maintaining – the North-East, North-West and Bucharest-Ilfov regions.

• If the counties of Ilfov, Timiș and the city of Bucharest stood out with a share of the adult resident population of over 70.0% of the total population, in 2060 it is anticipated that only the counties of Iaşi and Ilfov will have a share of the population aged 15-64 years and over 60.0% of the total population (Iasi 65.2% and Ilfov 60.2%).

• However, the demographic aging process will continue with different intensities. A continuous numerical increase is anticipated for the resident population aged 65 and over.

• The share of the elderly resident population in the total resident population will increase to 29.7%, and the share of young people will decrease to 12.9%, which will lead to the accentuation of the demographic aging of the Romanian population. If the aging index at the country level is 111 elderly people per 100 young people, in the perspective of 2060 the aging index will be 231 elderly people per 100 young people.

• Gorj County and the city of Bucharest will be, in 2060, the most “aged” areas with weights of over 38.0% of the total projected population

• In the average version, in the year 2060, a number of 18 counties will register shares of over 40.0% of the resident population aged 80 and over from the elderly population (Argeş, Botoşani, Brăila, Buzău, Călărași, Galati, Gorj, Hunedoara , Ialomiţa, Neamţ, Mehedinţi, Olt, Prahova, Sălaj, Teleorman, Tulcea, Vaslui and Vâlcea). Only in the counties of Cluj, Ilfov, Timiș and the city of Bucharest will be recorded, in the year 2060, lower shares (below 30%) of the population aged 80 and over.

• In 2015, the resident population aged 80 and over represented approximately a quarter of the elderly resident population (826.1 thousand people). Satu Mare County recorded the lowest share of the resident population aged 80 and over (19.4% in 2015), and the highest share was recorded in Botoşani County (27.9%).

• In the perspective of 2060, the resident population aged 80 and over will increase by 608,000 people in the average version. Within the resident population aged 65 and over, the share of the population aged 80 and over will increase to 35.1% (2060) in the average version and at 37.1% in the intermediate version.