What did Prigojin’s Wagner Group choose? The mercenaries have now split into at least four groups. And Putin planted mercenaries loyal to him there

The thousands of gunmen from the Wagner Group have now split into at least four groups, and the Kremlin is trying to bring them under its control, keeping an eye on Ukraine, the African continent and beyond.

Seven months after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose private army tried to revolt against Russian President Vladimir Putin, the state is trying to bring them into the service of the Kremlin. The thousands of people in the Wagner group have now split into at least four groups, according to two US officials cited in an analysis by Politico.

By mixing Wagner’s fighters with other mercenaries “loyal” to Putin, the Russian government hopes to prevent a repeat of last year’s events, when Wagner turned against Putin and the Defense Ministry.

“Partly, the purpose of the restructuring is to provide greater control over the group as a whole,” one of the US officials told Politico.

A new obstacle for US policy in Africa

The new private armies are already deployed around the world on special missions, including in Ukraine and Africa, where they are expected to play a destabilizing role similar to that played under Prigozhin, Politico’s two sources said.

Paramilitary groups have already forced the Biden administration to withdraw troops from Niger and Chad — events interpreted as a major setback in the fight against terrorism. At the same time, they represent a new obstacle for US policy in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya and other African nations.

One of the four groups Wagner split into trains alongside the Russian National Guard. This group has already been transferred to Ukraine and is counting significant losses. Two other groups operate under the control of the Ministry of Defense and Moscow’s intelligence services. The fourth group, known as Africa Corp, is trying to gain control in some African capitals, the two officials said.

Little is known about the split into the new groupings, and it remains unclear how many members come from Prigozhin’s Wagner and how many are “planted” by Putin. It is also unclear to what extent Prigozhin’s son, who initially took control of thousands of Wagner mercenaries after his father’s death, is still involved in decision-making. Prigozhin’s son likely leads some forces in the Central African Republic and Mali, officials said.

Evgeni Prigozhin was killed last August when his plane exploded in mid-air. The accident was seen by many as an assassination ordered by Putin.

His death marked the end of the most serious challenge to Putin’s leadership in his 25 years in power. Prigozhin made a fortune as Putin’s personal chef and official Kremlin supplier before creating the Wagner Group in 2017. By allowing a close Kremlin ally to create an unofficial private army, it has been useful for Russia to undertake discreet missions across world.

However, as the Wagner Group expanded its global reach, it began to become increasingly independent of Russia. Putin tolerated these changes as Wagner’s fighters assumed a major role in the war with Ukraine. However, last June Prigozhin and his mercenaries turned on Putin over the Russian defense ministry’s mishandling of the war.

This led to a series of clashes with Russian forces as Prigozhin’s men moved towards Moscow in an apparent coup attempt. Prigozhin eventually resigned following a deal negotiated by Russia’s allies in Belarus. But within two months, Prigozhin died, along with nine others, when his plane disintegrated and crashed.

Prigozhin’s death left the fate of his “empire” in the balance. At the time, the Wagner Group was in the process of building close ties with the authoritarian leaders of African states, providing security to dictators, while also engaging in mining business.

In the Central African Republic, for example, Wagner controlled a gold mine. Following Prigozhin’s death, his former subordinates greatly expanded the mining business.

Prigozhin also ran a disinformation operation that fueled protests in Africa, helped promote fake news in media outlets around the world, and ran massive “troll farms” to destabilize elections in Western Europe, the US and other democracies.

These disinformation centers are now likely under the control of Russian intelligence, US officials said. And officials from the Wagner group may be employed by other intelligence agencies, including the military’s intelligence directorate.

Moscow’s control over these mercenaries has enormous geopolitical implications. In Africa, in particular, it could undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to fight terrorism, promote democracy, and establish diplomatic ties with emerging regimes.

“Russia can offer these countries what the U.S. cannot, and not immediately anyway,” one U.S. official said, referring to Moscow’s ability to use mercenaries to black-handedly supply arms and ammunition to military governments in Africa. “And many of the leaders of these countries are tired of having their democracy handed to them by the US.”

By law, the United States cannot provide aid to governments that seize power through military coups, putting it one step behind Russia in such situations. Moscow’s direct control of paramilitary groups could also attract some African countries that have so far avoided engaging the Wagner Group, which has been internationally sanctioned as a criminal organization.

The example of Niger

Moscow’s use of paramilitary fighters to expand its influence in Africa is already visible in Niger, one of the most important points on the map of the fight against terrorism.

Niger’s military leaders seized control of the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, last July. The coup prompted Washington to suspend economic and military aid to the country, while the Biden administration pressed military leaders to return to democracy.

At the beginning of the month, however, hundreds of Russian mercenaries arrived in the capital, Niamey, claiming they had come to help train Niger’s army and establish formal cooperation with the junta.

The arrival just days before the Biden administration announced that the US would withdraw its 1,000 troops from the country after nearly 10 years finally created the impression that Russian forces have replaced US forces in a country where terrorist groups are plotting terror attacks.

As for Chad, another country with a significant presence of ex-Wagner fighters, the Biden administration announced this week that it was withdrawing special forces units tasked with counterterrorism at the request of the local government. The move was widely seen as another case of Russia replacing American influence.

Ex-Wagner fighters also remain active in Mali, Libya and Sudan, where they are contracted to provide security to unstable regimes. The US has tried to counter its presence in those nations and the Central African Republic, urging officials to distance themselves from Russia.

But the two U.S. officials also point out the risk involved in this Russian strategy — particularly with regard to the unanswered question of the loyalty of Wagner’s former fighters and whether they are willing to take orders from the country’s defense ministry.

Even before his rebellion, Prigozhin often publicly condemned the defense ministry, blaming its leaders for failures on the battlefield in Ukraine. And his final break with Putin came when he tried to force the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff.

Prigozhin blamed the two for the poor performance of the Russian troops. He also claimed they exaggerated the largely “illusory” threat posed by Ukraine. Many of Wagner’s fighters remained loyal to Prigozhin’s memory and continued to attack the defense minister. Now some of them are led by Shoigu himself in a highly selective group known as Patriot. The team is overseen and funded by the Ministry of Defence.