Politico sees Klaus Iohannis with a good chance to head the European Commission, if Ursula von der Leyen leaves. What is the argument against

The publication on European issues Politico believes that the president of Romania is on the list of possible replacements for Ursula von der Leyen, but she is still the favorite, Iohannis still has enough competitors, and the road to electing a president of the Commission is long. The Romanian head of state was also placed on a list of possible future heads of the EU executive in a recent analysis by Euronews Italia.

Politico believes that Ursula von der Leyen is still the main favorite to head the European Commission, but that a new mandate is still not guaranteed and that other names are being floated, either as genuine alternatives or as a way to pressure von der Leyen for obtaining concessions.

The President of Romania is seen as a safe hand and is a favorite of European leaders, especially conservatives, writes Politico, which gives Iohannis the best score on the short list of possible replacements for Ursula von der Leyen: 3/5 .

Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz praised him for keeping his country anchored in the pro-Western and pro-European camp after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which cannot be said for Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria.

Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly adhered to EU single market rules and did not unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain – which strengthened Iohannis’ reputation as a pro-European team player.

It also matters that many argue that the time has come for an Eastern European to lead the EU.

And in this case, Politico notes, Iohannis, a German speaker, is well placed, coming from the same political family in the EPP as von der Leyen.

The EPP’s decision to organize its electoral congress in Bucharest also attests to its position among the group’s conservative leaders, says the publication on European issues, which notes that Iohannis is looking for a top position at the international level.

There are also arguments against Iohannis’ chances, however, Politico points out, saying that his last-minute decision to steal the NATO leadership role from Mark Rutte (the Dutch prime minister) has upset some countries in Western Europe.

Speaking of which, Politico says, Iohannis’ chances of becoming NATO secretary general are slim, given the broad support of Rutte’s allies.

Possible opponents

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, also a member of the EPP, is another possible candidate credited by Politico with a good score, equal to that of Iohannis: 3/5.

With chances on this list (2/3) is included the former Italian prime minister and president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. A problem, however, would be that Draghi does not have a clear political affiliation, and the EPP would have no reason to give up the position of president of the Commission.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, credited with the same score of 2/5, is also a possible replacement for von der Leyen, the problems being that she has no executive experience and yet comes from a small country – Malta.

Christine Lagarde, the current head of the European Central Bank, and Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for the Internal Market, both French are also on the list, but with lower odds – 1/5.

“If you think I look good in the material, I’m happy”

The nomination for the head of the European Commission will be made after the European parliamentary elections in June, in which the EPP is expected to come first, and the forecasts are not a firm indicator – taking into account also the fact that von der Leyen appeared as a surprise, five years ago years, to occupy the post.

In any case, this is not the first analysis that includes Iohannis among von der Leyen’s possible replacements.

The other day, Euronews Italy placed the head of state on a short list, along with Draghi, Lagarde, Lagarde, Metsola, but also Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the prime minister of Greece, and Kristalina Georgieva, the director of the IMF.

Asked in a press conference held in South Korea about his support for NATO and the headship of the EU Commission, Iohannis avoided a direct answer.

“Regarding the support behind closed doors, you realize that this means that in diplomatic language one does not speak in public, and then I think you understand very well that I will not divulge these positions. Regarding the other issue (short list for the head of the European Commission, no), you refer to an analysis-type material, made without our consultation, and if you think I look good in the material, I’m happy, if not, no”. answered the president of Romania, quoted by News.ro.