Eastern Europe aims for the post of European Commissioner for Defense, the choice is between Bulgaria, Poland and Romania / What are the chances of Iohannis

Analysis of the Bulgarian portal KAPITAL, taken over by Rador Radio Romania:

One of the topics at the EU summit in Brussels a week ago was left out of the public opinion in Bulgaria, although it is important. The main news for domestic consumption (Bulgarian-nr) there was that outgoing Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov softened the tone and opened the door for further talks between PP-DB and GERB to form a government (although they ultimately failed from new).

However, the key topics were related to defense policy, with European leaders giving a clear signal of support for the Union’s defense industry. They insisted that the European Investment Bank be more flexible in its lending policy to defense companies. Until now, she saw serious risks in such investments. At the same time, the heads of state failed to reach an agreement on the issue of common European financing of weapons for Ukraine. One possible option discussed was for this to happen through a new EU loan. However, one thing was certain – for the first time, elections would be held in wartime, and defense would be a central theme.

What has not been made public is the advanced stage of negotiations for the positions in the next term. That Ursula von der Leyen will return to the helm of the European Commission was clear to all at the oval table in the Council. It is very likely that Roberta Metsola will get support again to lead the European Parliament. And the cards for the portfolios of the most influential European commissioners are already on the table. At this stage, the new key post of defense commissioner is likely to end up in Eastern Europe, two independent and well-informed sources in Brussels share.

And although, given the political situation, this seems far-fetched and unrealistic, Bulgaria is on the list of countries with some chance of achieving this.

Who and where are they in this race?

According to the sources of “Kapital” magazine, it was discussed in Brussels that the new defense commissioner should go to one of the countries closest to the front – Bulgaria, Romania or Poland (Slovakia and Hungary are obviously not an option due to the strong their pro-Russian positions). This is not a surprise, because the three countries were also the most affected by the wave of Ukrainian refugees, the energy crisis and dependence on Russian fuel, as well as the import of agricultural products from Ukraine, which had a strong impact on their markets. Because they are on NATO’s eastern flank, they are also on the front line if the war escalates.

There have been rumors that Romanian President Iohannis, who has an appetite for NATO’s top job, is using his secretary-general campaign to get a higher seat in the new EU mandate. The establishment in Romania of the largest NATO base in Europe, which is estimated at 2.5 billion euros, is also a step in this direction. The country allocates 2.5% of GDP to defense (although last year it managed to spend only 1.6% of what was planned). However, Iohannis’ mandate as president expires after the official allocation of posts in the EU, and this reduces his chances. According to the sources of “Kapital” magazine, Ursula von der Leyen personally invited a high-ranking Romanian politician to lead the field of agriculture in the next European Commission.

At the same time, Poland also seems a logical choice for defense. It was already investing 2.4% of GDP in defense before the 2022 war, third in NATO after the US and Greece. At the moment, Poland allocates more than 4% of its GDP, and its goal is to create the largest land army in Europe. On the other hand, the radical positions towards Russia, as well as the difficulties currently faced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk to promote the necessary reforms in the country (and the strong opposition of the until recently leaders of Law and Justice) destabilize the efforts to return to the rule of law and reduce the chances for the European post.

However, there is a “but”. According to the deputy director of the European Council for Foreign Policy, Vesela Cherneva, it is too early to talk about this post, as things should be clear only at the end of June. However, for her there are clearly prominent and experienced politicians with a good chance for this post. “Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski directly targeted the position and it will be difficult to miss,” believes Cherneva. By the way, he was one of the few European politicians who reacted positively to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent comments about the possible deployment of Western troops to Ukraine.

Bulgaria has shown its solidarity with Ukraine, and although its military capabilities are far behind those of Poland and Romania, it continues to play an important role in helping Ukraine. There are two risks for Bulgaria to achieve this position – political instability and pro-Russian attitudes.

Why is the post of European Commissioner for Defense important?

It is an unspoken rule in the EU that each country tends to a sector that is also important to it. For example, Romania administered regional development and cohesion money in 2014-2019, through Corina Crețu, and currently holds the transport policy (2019-2024), through Adina Vălean. It is no coincidence that the country has started building highways and railways in the last decade and recently received permission for a new bridge over the Danube near Ruse.

Poland, for its part, owns agriculture at this time, and Janusz Wojciechowski was among the initiators of a grant for agricultural producers in the region after the start of the war in Ukraine.

Another example from Portugal – under Carlos Moedas, who held the EC portfolio for science and innovation, his country became one of the biggest beneficiaries of Horizon 2020.

For Bulgaria, the post of European Commissioner never brought the benefits it could have. Kristalina Gheorghieva was an undisputed expert on the Union’s budget policies, but her positions in Brussels failed to open Bulgaria’s doors to the eurozone and Schengen, for example – corruption proved to be a stronger argument here. On the other hand, Maria Gabriel’s digital portfolio and subsequently her focus on science, education and sports remained distant and misunderstood by the Bulgarian public. Bulgarians still don’t know what the biggest science and innovation funding program “Horizon” is, how to increase our capacity in it and start receiving support for projects with high added value. At the same time, if Bulgaria is indeed in a close competition for one of the most important positions in the next European Commission – the one for defense, it would already bring strong visibility and good positioning to the country among the other 26 countries . The benefits of this are getting more defense investment in Bulgarian companies and strengthening the Bulgarian military. It would also gain the trust of our partners in order to achieve Bulgaria’s goals in Europe.

According to Vesela Cherneva, the next commissioner should be appointed according to his expertise to occupy the sector (whether it will be defense, energy, social policy or another). “If Bulgaria targets a certain field, it must propose a person with the most suitable profile, regardless of gender and political affiliation. It is necessary to think strategically about which candidacy would have the greatest success in this competition”.

In any case, this decision is likely to be taken by the next caretaker government, and this raises the question that the nomination must take place through a clear procedure and a public debate with the parties that may be connected to power in the coming years.

Article by Monica Vârbanova / Translation: Mirela Petrescu