in what situation would Western troops be sent to Ukraine / The eastern flank of the Alliance, including Romania, plays an important role against Russia

The first “red line” is the direct or indirect participation of a third party in the conflict in Ukraine. An eventuality accompanied by fears. And which revolves around the possibility of Russia breaking through Kiev’s defense lines. The Russian-Ukrainian border, after all, is very long and vulnerable. Zelensky’s troops are no longer able to fully control it. But the real nightmare concerns the possible penetration in the northwest. Why? Because it would create a corridor between Kiev and Belarus. A tactical option recently considered plausible by several allied analysts. Minsk would thus be incorporated directly into the military competition. His troops and arsenal would be decisive for Moscow. And this circumstance could only activate the defense in favor of Ukraine, according to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.

The second red line refers to a military provocation against the Baltic countries or Poland, or a targeted attack against the Republic of Moldova. It is not necessarily an invasion, which could follow an offensive on Odessa, but it can only be a military attack to test the Western reaction. An attempt that could also be made to test the reaction capacity of the allied front in a phase of possible confusion: the electoral season in Europe and the USA could lead the Kremlin to believe that NATO is distracted. However, the North Atlantic Alliance would not be willing to tolerate such aggression.

Delicate situation on the eastern front

To understand the delicacy of the moment, attention must be directed to the eastern front. The European chancelleries follow with deep concern the evolution of the Russian offensive in Donbas. The possibility of a military collapse of Zelenskiy’s troops is no longer excluded. Therefore, it becomes vital for Western leaders to send a clear message to Vladimir Putin: it is one thing to penetrate the eastern territories, it is quite another to capture the capital or involve third countries in the war. In other words: Ukraine cannot lose, and NATO is prepared to intervene directly to prevent the collapse of the Kiev administration.

La Repubblica reports on a prepared strategy and deployed troops in case of emergency. Along the eastern flank (Baltic countries, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania) NATO can already count on more than 100,000 soldiers, between those already deployed and those who would be mobilized in a few days within the “Force of Answer”. In one month, recently explained the head of the Polish General Staff, they could be doubled, and in six months tripled.

They will be the ones who will be called to intervene. A possible Western reaction would, however, take place step by step: the first troops to be mobilized would be the air forces, while the ground troops would represent only the last solution in the event of an eventual escalation.

Unfavorable conditions for Kyiv

On the other hand, the alarm, already high due to the lack of supplies and people available to the Ukrainians, became very high due to two other unfavorable conditions for Kiev. The first refers to the weather, which has already allowed the start of the Russian spring offensive.

The second factor is political. In the coming months, Europe and the United States will be engaged in two electoral campaigns, which will slow down any operational decision. This is the ideal condition for Putin, who is aware that he can take advantage of the distraction of Western public opinion – and the weakness of its leaders – to gain ground and move menacingly closer to the borders of NATO and the EU.

These red lines help to understand Emmanuel Macron’s statements. The French president has been very vocal in recent weeks, asking his European partners not to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine. A clear signal from a nuclear power. In short, Macron’s approach translates the emergency scenarios discussed at NATO summits.

The difficulties of European armies

A direct conflict still presents enormous operational difficulties. And structural delays. Paris, for example, is able to send up to 20,000 troops at short notice. But, above all, they would not be able to sustain a prolonged confrontation.

According to the former commander of the Air Force, Bruno Maigret, quoted in a parliamentary report, in a high-intensity conflict, the French Air Force would not have any aircraft available in 10 days and, probably, no missiles after two days.

Similar estimates, in some cases more serious, apply to the main European countries: shortage of artillery, production lines of the military industry with long execution times, incompatible with emergency situations, hyper-specialized armies and, therefore, with small forces. But there are American bases on the continent, with their firepower and defense capability, including nuclear.

That is why NATO does not rule out any scenario today. To focus on deterrence. To remove the possibility of a direct confrontation becoming a reality.