Xi will be in Europe from May 5-10. The Chinese president will visit France, Serbia and Hungary at a time when the EU plans to impose tariffs on China’s electric vehicle and green energy industries because of the huge subsidies Beijing has given manufacturers, giving them an unfair advantage in the European market.
With the Chinese economy facing headwinds and the US closing in on Chinese companies, the EU could have some influence on Beijing. But the bloc’s 27 members are not clearly aligned, undermining their ability to shape Chinese thinking, analysts say.
The visit is overshadowed by European concerns about Chinese support for Russia’s war economy after two years of military campaigning in Ukraine.
Lin Jian, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that Xi’s visit will “inject stability into the development of relations between China and Europe and make new contributions to peace and stability in the world.”
Xi’s objective would be to neutralize the EU’s economic security agenda, including tariff threats, by exploiting internal differences, said Mathieu Duchatel, a senior researcher at the Montaigne Institute. “There is a very strong element of divide and rule,” Duchatel said of China’s strategy toward Europe. “This is not hidden, but in plain sight,” adds the expert.
European companies and governments have long complained about restricted access to the Chinese market and unfair competition. A study by the Kiel Institute estimated that China’s subsidies to its firms are three to nine times higher than those granted by other major economies.
Macron and Scholz are trying to reconcile their positions
The European Commission has the sole right to lead trade policy for the entire EU, but within the bloc, member states have struggled to agree on how to resolve the trade imbalance.
French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for a more aggressive EU stance on subsidies and has warned the bloc risks being left behind if it does not allow derogations from its own competition rules in the face of “excessive subsidies” from China and the US. “We regulate too much, we don’t invest enough, we don’t protect enough,” Macron told The Economist in an interview published Thursday.
In April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pressed Xi for better access to the Chinese market for German firms. But on EU anti-subsidy investigations, apparently anxious to avoid antagonizing Beijing, he said the bloc should not act out of protectionist self-interest, although competition should be fair.
Some French government officials say privately they are worried that Berlin will try to undermine the electric vehicle probe, which has targeted Chinese carmakers BYD, Geely and SAIC. China is a key market for Germany’s export-based economy and its automakers, such as BMW and Mercedez-Benz.
Scholz dined with Macron in Paris on Thursday, a meeting attended by the wives, two sources said.
Noah Barkin, senior adviser at Rhodium Group, which tracks EU-China relations, says Macron would encourage Scholz to join him and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for four-way talks with Xi in the French capital , while Paris tries to present a united front. The Elysee Palace declined to comment.
“A worrying gap has opened up between the German position regarding China, on the one hand, and the position of the French and the European Commission, on the other. There is simply a greater willingness in Paris and Brussels to stand up to Beijing on the trade front than in Berlin,” explained Barkin.
“Europe has quite a lot of leverage, but those leverages fly out the window if European creditors send different messages to Xi,” the analyst warned.
Concerns about Russia. Why is Xi going to Hungary and Serbia?
A Macron aide said the French leader would add his voice to calls from Washington, Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere for China to halt exports to Russia of “dual-use” and other technologies that support the effort to war of Russia.
In Serbia and Hungary, any public comments by Xi about Russia will face close scrutiny.
Xi is due to receive Russian President Vladimir Putin in China later in May.
Observers say Xi’s choice of Serbia and Hungary was designed to bring together two European countries that are pro-Russia and are big beneficiaries of Chinese investment, including financial aid for a delayed rail project that is supposed to link the capitals. their.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucici said he was honored by Xi’s visit and expected a free trade agreement between the two countries, signed last October, to enter into force on July 1.
Chinese analysts say Xi could use his stopover in Belgrade, which coincides with the 20th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in that country, to highlight China’s anti-NATO agenda.
China has stepped up Russia’s efforts to blame the US and NATO for escalating the war in Ukraine by supplying weapons to Kiev.
Hungary, for its part, has a history of blocking EU statements criticizing China on human rights.
Shen Dingli, a researcher in the field of international relations, is of the opinion that the actions to raise awareness of Serbia and Hungary are part of China’s efforts to deepen the divisions within the West.
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Tags: Jinpings Visit Europe Reveal Western Divisions Strategy
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