Ukrainians’ predictions and fears of a worsening frontline in recent weeks are beginning to come true just days after the US Congress approved a major military aid package, while Russia claimed a new village in Donetsk on Sunday and Army Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine admitted that Moscow had “tactical successes in several sectors”.
Ukrainian artillery position on the Bahmut frontPhoto: AA/ABACA / Abaca Press / Profimedia
The US Congress approved the $60 billion aid package, and the US State Department announced that the Americans had already secretly sent longer-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) missiles to Ukraine.
Until this week, Washington had announced aid for Ukraine only once this year: a $300 million aid package in March, made possible only by Pentagon savings on other purchases.
After a half-year delay, Russia dug into Ukrainian territory, and the delay in aid was costly for Kiev.
“The help is coming much too late, as the lack of equipment has led to Ukraine losing the initiative in October 2023,” Katerina Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), was quoted as saying by Reuters.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, said as recently as April 22 that Ukrainian troops risked getting into a difficult situation “in the near future” on the front.
The mayor of Kharkiv, Igor Terehov, said his city was at risk of becoming “a second Aleppo” because of the bombings that targeted power supply systems.
Russia has also stepped up its attacks on Ukrainian rail infrastructure to “cripple” military supplies, particularly Western equipment, in anticipation of a new offensive.
Russia claims another victory
Russian forces on Sunday reclaimed the village of Novobahmutivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, near Okretîne, which has become a hot spot of frontline fighting in recent days, Interfax news agency reported
Russian forces also repelled a series of Ukrainian counterattacks near Cheasiv Yar, the Russian Defense Ministry said, another hot spot on the front that Russia is trying to capture.
In total, Vladimir Putin’s forces made new gains in at least three locations along Ukraine’s eastern front – including an advance in the northern Kharkiv region for the first time in months – again highlighting Kiev’s need for ammunition and weapons from the United States and other allies.
The latest developments reflect the new pace on the battlefield since the fall of the industrial city of Avdiivka in February.
Russia’s tactical advances are now daily. They are generally modest – from a few hundred meters of territory to no more than a kilometer – but usually occur in several locations at once, CNN points out.
Ukraine’s DeepState monitoring group, which updates daily on changes in front-line positions, shows Russian forces advancing in eight different locations along 20-25 km of the front in a 24-hour period.
Military bloggers on both sides claim that Russian forces have crossed a watercourse and taken control of the settlements of Semenivka and Berdichi. A few kilometers to the north, Soloviove would also be in Russian hands, as well as the small settlement of Keramik, at least in part.
“The retreat to the Donetsk operational area continues,” writes Ukrainian military blogger Miroshnikov, expressing concern that Russian troops could soon move south to Karlivka – where they could cross the Vovcha River – joining other advancing Russian units to the west of the recently captured Pervomaiske locality.
Ukraine recognizes Russia’s tactical successes
Fighting in eastern Ukraine has worsened and Kiev’s troops have been forced to withdraw to new positions in at least three places along the front, Ukraine’s top general said on Sunday.
Russian troops have steadily advanced in the east, while hot spots of fighting are centered around the town of Ceasiv Yar and northwest of Avdiivka, which Russian forces captured in February.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandr Sîrski, said on Sunday that the situation on the front has “deteriorated”, with Russian troops having “tactical successes” in several sectors, reports AFP.
Russia is “actively attacking the entire front line, achieving tactical successes in certain sectors,” General Sîrski said on Facebook.
“In an attempt to take the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy has concentrated its efforts in several sectors, thereby creating a significant advantage in terms of forces and assets,” he continued.
He reported “violent fighting” on the front in the past week, describing a “dynamic” situation with certain positions captured by one side and then the other several times over the course of a single day.
According to him, Ukrainian troops still manage to “improve their tactical position” in certain areas.
Among the areas where the fighting is most intense is the Kupiansk sector, in the north-east of the country, where the Russians “have had partial successes, but they have been stopped”, General Sîrski said.
Despite all the shortcomings, it should be noted instead that, although some warnings went so far as to evoke the possibility of Ukraine losing the war, until the end of the year, Kiev held on.
And experts and officials cited by the Financial Times believe that, for now, the offensive that could begin in May or June will not provide Moscow with serious progress on the battlefield.
Error made by Ukrainian troops
Russian troops managed to capture most of Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, after an apparent troop rotation error.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade was to be replaced by the 115th Mechanized Brigade, both considered elite units, along the front line just east of Ocheretyne, a small rural settlement.
But as the 47th Brigade retreated, Russia’s 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked, taking advantage of a gap left by the 115th Mechanized Brigade.
The commander of the 47th Brigade, Mykola Melnyk, a former lawyer famous for losing a leg during last summer’s offensive, wrote on Facebook: “The drastic advance of the Russians became possible because certain units failed simply. I hope they will be retrained as assault troops,” he added.
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