Klaus Iohannis, nominated by Politico among the possible successors of Ursula von der Leyen at the head of the European Commission

Klaus Iohannis is cited among the potential successors of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission by the daily Politico, which notes that she is still the favorite for a second term at the head of the EU executive, but the position is no longer so certain as it seemed

“This means an interesting new game is being played in town (…) who could get the job, if not von der Leyen?” writes Politico, which presents a list of candidates “who are proposed as either real alternatives or a way to put pressure on von der Leyen to get concessions from her.” Klaus Iohannis ranks fourth in this list, which presents the pros and cons for each politician.

Why? The President of Romania is considered a firm hand and is loved by European leaders, especially conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz showered him with praise for keeping his country anchored in the pro-Western and pro-European camp after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which cannot be said of Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria . Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly adhered to EU single market rules and did not unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain – which strengthened Iohannis’ reputation as a pro-European team player.

Many argue that the time has come for an Eastern European to lead the EU. In this case, the German-speaking Iohannis is well placed, coming from the same political family in the EPP as von der Leyen. The EPP’s decision to hold its electoral congress in Bucharest also attests to its position among the group’s conservative leaders.

With his second term as president set to end in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international post. Last month he agreed to run for the next NATO leader – but it will be an uphill battle given the broad support enjoyed by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Arguments against? Iohannis’ last-minute attempt to steal the role of NATO leader from Rutte has irritated some countries in Western Europe.

Who are the other potential successors to Ursula von der Leyen, in the order presented by Politico:

Why? Aged 76, he led a broad-based Italian coalition until it disintegrated in 2022, and his name often comes up when international leadership roles are vacant. So far, the former Italian Prime Minister and President of the European Central Bank has been associated mostly with the post of President of the European Council (when Charles Michel will leave).

Draghi has already returned to the center of European politics, working on an official plan for Brussels to make the bloc more competitive, which he will present immediately after the European elections, when European leaders will battle it out for the bloc’s top posts. In addition, he is close to French President Emmanuel Macron.

Why not? The Italian has no clear political affiliation and it is hard to understand why the EPP would cede the powerful post of Commission President to someone with no clear political loyalties.

Why? As pointed out above, it is unlikely that the EPP will give up the leadership of the Commission in the next mandate. However, if von der Leyen does not get the support she needs, the other top EPP candidate could emerge.

As president of the European Parliament, Metsola has managed to stay above political controversy, a tactic that previously helped her secure her current post. At the same time, she has shown leadership on foreign policy and was the first EU leader to visit Kiev after the Russian invasion in February 2022. Originally from Malta, Metsola could be a win for southern Europe when they split management functions.

Why not? Malta is the smallest country in the EU, both in terms of size and population. Metsola also has no driving experience, not even in his home country. Her conservative positions on abortion were used against her early in her presidency of the EU legislature.

Why? Because she’s French.

Macron’s reluctance to endorse von der Leyen for the top job raises an obvious question: After five years of German rule and an even longer period in which Germans or Austrians have held the key post of Commission president’s chief of staff, does he want Macron as a Frenchman to lead the Commission? As a former finance minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde benefits from high-level leadership experience and also has the added advantage of being a woman.

Why not? Also, because she’s French. (and she’s not terribly popular with her co-workers).

There is no indication that Lagarde is willing to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, or even that the Elysée is seriously considering putting her name forward. Since leaving the IMF, Lagarde’s name has come up during almost every French government reshuffle as a possible minister.

Why? Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is also from the EPP and, like Iohannis, his appointment would answer growing calls for Eastern Europe to get a leadership position. The election of a Croat as President of the Commission would also be a positive signal for future EU members (Croatia is the newest member of the EU). Plenković’s surprise announcement that he will head the list of MEP candidates for Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has led some to suspect that he wants to abandon domestic politics. His experience as prime minister since 2016 has certainly given him authority and opportunities to network with his fellow European leaders.

Why not? Plenković dismissed rumors that he could replace von der Leyen, which of course could be taken as a good indication that he is interested in the job.

Why? He’s French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he was a “plan B” candidate to become European commissioner in 2019 (he only got the job after his first choice, Sylvie Goulard, was eliminated during confirmation hearings in Parliament). He has made it clear that he is open to becoming Plan B again if von der Leyen’s candidacy fails. As a former French finance minister, Breton has high-level leadership experience and, although not part of the EPP, has conservative leanings. His experience as a former CEO who put industrial policy back on the Commission’s agenda allows him to argue that he should lead an EU executive that will focus much more on competitiveness.

Breton also became von der Leyen’s most important critic in the Brussels bubble. In a tweet after her nomination as the EPP’s lead candidate, Breton noted that the Commission chief did not have unanimous support within the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of commissioners who criticized the election of Markus Pieper as Commissioner for SMEs. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron was “furious” about the tweet, other French officials later said “le président” wasn’t so angry after all.

Why not? Breton probably has more enemies than friends in top EU circles, including within the Commission and in many EU countries, many of whom question his results. His shameless self-promotion and reputation for talking before delivering irritated fellow commissioners, especially Competition chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was supposed to work with.

A scathing (and anonymous!) article in the French publication Atlantico described Breton as “the worst French commissioner in 30 years”, suggesting he has rivals determined to undermine him. In addition, he is not a member of the EPP, and the controversy surrounding his time as head of French technology firm Atos is seen as a major disadvantage for any potential confirmation by the European Parliament.

A surprise candidate

Why? The protracted negotiations between political groupings for European leadership posts after the European elections are always full of surprises. In 2019, no one would have bet on von der Leyen becoming President of the Commission. And now, the European political class could be surprised with a candidate it has never heard of.