MAP How Ukrainian AI-equipped drones got into the heart of Russia to hit refinery after refinery. The effects are already visible

Ukrainian drones increasingly able to evade Moscow’s jamming and air defenses have attacked several Russian oil facilities in recent weeks in an attempt to reduce refining capacity and slow the Kremlin’s war machine, Reuters, CNN and Foreign write Policy.

A drone struck the main unit of Russia’s Taneco refinery, one of the country’s largest, on Tuesday, according to a Reuters analysis of images showing the impact, contradicting Moscow’s claims that the attack on the refinery, more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine, would was rejected.

Reuters also wrote that the damage suffered by the refinery is not critical, while the state agency RIA stated that a fire that broke out on the spot was extinguished after 20 minutes.

Kiev soon claimed the strike in Nizhnekamsk, Republic of Tatarstan, which it said was the work of a joint operation by the Security Service (SBU) and the Military Intelligence Service (GUR).

It wasn’t a surprise. In recent weeks, Kiev has repeatedly struck Russian oil refineries, some located hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine’s borders, in a campaign aimed at inflicting economic costs, but also to hinder as much as possible the logistics of the war waged by Moscow.

A Ukrainian intelligence source said Kiev’s drones also hit a Russian factory that produces “Shahed” long-range attack drones, causing “significant damage”.

Ukrainian attacks in recent weeks have generally been carried out using long-range drones, some of which are aided by an early form of artificial intelligence that helps them navigate and avoid Russian jamming, according to Ukrainian sources cited by CNN.

The first effects are visible. Russia has acknowledged that some of its refining capacity is down and has temporarily banned gasoline exports to avoid a spike in domestic fuel prices.

By the end of March, about 14 percent of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity had been affected by Ukrainian drone strikes, according to Reuters calculations.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Russia plans to cut diesel exports from its Black Sea and Baltic Sea ports to the lowest level in five months.

And on Tuesday, the Russian ruble depreciated against the dollar, affected by the reduction in the supply of currency from exporters, but also by the reaction of the markets to the spectacular attack in Nijnekams, writes Reuters.

More and more capable drones

The use of drones is by no means a new strategy for Ukraine, but Kiev’s skills in this regard have grown significantly in recent times, providing the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

It’s unclear which drones were used in Tuesday’s attack, but Ukrainian sources told CNN that a successful strike generally requires an aircraft capable of avoiding Russian jamming systems. And Ukrainian drones, these sources say, have acquired these abilities.

“Precision in jammed conditions is enabled by the use of Artificial Intelligence. Each drone has a computer with data obtained by satellite and from the ground,” explained the quoted source. “The flights are prearranged with our allies and the aircraft follow the flight plan to allow us to hit the targets with precision within a few meters,” the source added to the US TV station.

This precision, experts said, is possible thanks to the drone’s sensors.

“They have this ability which is a form of Artificial Intelligence,” explained Noah Sylvia, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think-tank, who said the drone initially receives data about the geography of where it is going. navigates, being then able to identify where it is without communicating with satellites.

Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British military officer and expert on drone warfare and Artificial Intelligence, also explained to CNN that the level of “intelligence” is still very low.

“This level of autonomy has not been seen before in drones, but we are still in the early stages of the potential of this technology,” he pointed out.

In the past few weeks, Reuters has counted attacks targeting nine Russian refineries: Taneko – in Nizhnekamsk, Kuibyshev – near the city of Samara, Ryazan – south of Moscow, Novoshakhtinsk – in the Rostov region, Norsi – near Nizhny Novgorod, Kirishi – in the region Leningrad, Sizran – near Samara, Slaviansk – in the Krasnodar region and Kaluga – south of Moscow.

Some of them, but not all, had to partially suspend their operations or reduce their production.

Two problems for Moscow

Moscow derives about 40% of the revenue that reaches its federal budget from the export of crude oil and refined products (and this share is even higher when converted into Russian rubles), which makes this sector an essential part of the capacity the Kremlin to increase defense spending, rebuild its shattered armies, and acquire vast quantities of foreign-made weaponry to use against Ukraine.

Russian refineries also produce millions of barrels per day of products such as diesel and jet fuel, which are vital to the military.

Although the impact of the Ukrainian attacks varied from refinery to refinery, the drone strikes present two big problems for Moscow.

First, the continued attacks will further strain Russia’s limited anti-aircraft defenses, which Moscow will be forced to deploy over increasingly large areas, writes Foreign Policy.

Second, due to years of Western sanctions, repairs to the more advanced components of the refineries could be much more difficult than under normal circumstances, which could affect Russia’s ability to produce higher-value oil products such as fuels with a high octane number.

Experts noted that rather than hitting fuel storage facilities, for example, Ukraine hit distillation facilities, where crude oil is processed and turned into fuel or other derivatives.

Hitting these facilities causes more damage, and repairing them requires Western technology, which Russia cannot easily acquire, observers said.

At least for the time being, given that the situation on the eastern front in Ukraine is complicated, Kiev declares itself satisfied.

“These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities that we can hit with our weapons,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this month, referring to the drone attacks on refineries.

“Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky,” he added.

The US is concerned, but Ukraine says the strikes will continue

In an interview with the Washington Post on March 29, President Zelensky said attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are legitimate.

The strikes are a response to Russian attacks on critical infrastructure and correspond to Ukraine’s military objectives, the Ukrainian leader said.

The statement was made after some information appeared in the media according to which the US would have asked Ukraine to stop attacking the targets of the Russian oil industry.

Zelenskiy’s adviser, Mihailo Podoliak, denied these reports, saying that Kiev had not received such calls from Washington.

US fears, the press speculated, have to do with rising oil prices.

While they did not mention energy prices, Washington officials emphasized that they are actively discouraging Ukraine from hitting these refineries. “We have said for a long time that we do not encourage or support attacks inside Russia,” a US official told CNN.

A bigger concern, experts say, is that Ukraine will not stop at refineries. Some of Russia’s largest oil ports, responsible for about two-thirds of its exports of crude oil and petroleum products, according to RBC, are within range of Ukrainian drones.

Ukrainian officials said they understood US concerns but that the strikes would continue.

“It is clear that we must reduce these budget revenues as much as possible and automatically cut off Mr. Putler’s oxygen,” said Vasil Maliuk, head of the SBU, using a combination of Putin and Hitler’s name.

“So we’ll keep working, while gas station country keeps burning,” he added.

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