Quick reaction: Local elections in Turkey. Why was President Erdogan’s party defeated?

Yesterday, March 31, general local elections took place in Turkey. The apathy, indifference and sense of hopelessness that we observed among Turks before these elections are in stark contrast to the state of joy, hope and bliss after the elections. This election campaign has been one of the most boring campaigns I have had the opportunity to watch since I have been in this country. One of the reasons would be the idea that the vote of the Turks could no longer change anything in their country. But the election results show that the electorate of around 62 million Turks can surprise. The total vote count shows a fairly clear defeat for the AKP (Justice and Development Party, led by President Erdogan).

Violeta Stratan İlbasmış completed her doctoral studies at Marmara University in Istanbul, Faculty of Communication. He collaborates with the national newspaper “Cumhuriyet” in Turkey.

The main battle was fought for the biggest cities of Turkey: Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. They were led until now by mayors of the Republican People’s Party – opposition party in Turkey (CHP – party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk). The mayoral candidates from the AKP made immeasurable efforts to win these cities, but they failed. Moreover, candidates from the opposition CHP party also won elections in other major cities of Turkey, which many people did not think this party could win. It is for the first time since the emergence of the AKP on the political scene in Turkey that the CHP manages to rank first nationally.

In Turkey there is an expression widely used in the media: “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey!”. Istanbul, the metropolis where 16 million inhabitants live, was the biggest stake of this election. The current mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu, is one of the most popular politicians in Turkey, but also the most powerful politician in the opposition.

In the capital of Turkey, the city of Ankara, the elections were won by Mansur Yavas, a very popular mayor, not only in Ankara, but also in all of Turkey. Both Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavaş are seen as potential Turkish opposition candidates for the 2028 presidential election.

The city of Izmir, considered to be a true city-citadel of democratic values, freedom and human rights did not surprise public opinion in Turkey. The candidate of the Republican People’s Party won the elections this time as well.

Why, however, was the party led by President Erdogan defeated in this election? In my opinion, here are the possible causes:

• The serious economic crisis in which Turkey was mentioned is the most important reason that influenced the results of these elections. Since 2018, Turkey has been in an unprecedented economic crisis with a galloping inflation rate. For comparison, in 2010 the inflation rate in Turkey was 6.4 percent, and in 2023 it reached 64.8 percent. Some studies, however, talk about a much higher figure. The Turkish lira devalued enormously, the purchasing power of the population decreased. The authorities have promised to make Turkey a “paradise” for importers and exporters, but in the meantime, living in Turkey has become a real pain for its own citizens, who are struggling to cope with sky-high prices for basic consumer goods. The disappearance of the middle class through the existence of a high gap between the poor and the rich is a result of the wrong financial policies applied for years. One of the segments of society perhaps most affected by this crisis are retirees. A big mistake of President Erdogan was keeping the value of the lowest pension well below the minimum wage in the economy. The minimum pension in Turkey is 10,000 Turkish lira (285 euros), while the minimum salary is 17,000 Turkish lira (486 euros). More jokingly, more seriously, Turkish commentators say that 2024 should be declared the “Year of Turkish Pensioners!”. I will allow myself to quote one of the most famous Turkish journalists, Banu Avar, who stated the following: “The local elections had the atmosphere of a general election, where the vote of 13 million pensioners was decisive. The name of the real opposition is “poverty”!

• 34 political parties participated in the political race, but did not form coalitions. Thus the votes were dispersed. Those angry with the AKP chose to vote for parties with which the AKP had formed a coalition in the past. One of these parties is the New Welfare Party (YRP, radical Islamist), led by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Turkey’s former prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan. Criticism of the AKP for maintaining its trade relations with Israel after its attack on the Gaza Strip and other accumulated grievances make the YRP a stop for those who have broken with the government but do not want to join the opposition. According to the distribution of Turkish party votes, this party ranks 3rd (6.16%) after CHP (37.64%) and AKP (35.57%).

• At the local level, the AKP leadership has not successfully applied social policies that would have led to the recovery or improvement of the lives of women, youth, the elderly or other categories of the population. The CHP mayors in the big cities were successful in this regard, which was also reflected in the election results.

• The AKP leadership led by President Erdogan has been heavily criticized by the opposition media and opposition politicians for the exorbitant maintenance costs of the Presidential Palace where the president resides. The authoritarian regime, or to translate it from Turkish, “the regime of one man” was the ace up the opposition’s sleeve. Turkey is currently classified as having a hybrid regime, combining elements of formal democracy and authoritarianism.

• AKP candidates in Turkey’s big cities were not influential, powerful and charismatic political figures. The charisma, authority and experience of President Erdogan has eclipsed the figures of these politicians, who remain somewhat in the shadow of the president. Not for nothing, several commentators have stated that this election will be between Erdogan and the candidates of the opposition parties. The AKP candidate for the mayor of Istanbul, Murat Kurum, former Minister of Environment and Urban Development, was harshly criticized for his activity at the ministry. The AKP candidate for mayor of the capital Ankara, Turgut Altinok, was involved in scandals related to his wealth (apartments of the order of hundreds, plots of land, etc.) which led the Turkish press to call him a “real estate baron”.

Özgur Özel, the chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) with tears in his eyes in a speech delivered on the evening of the election, stated that “the election results showed that Turkish voters want a new policy in Turkey. Today, the voters decided to change the 22-year-old image of Turkey”. However, President Erdogan in his speech declared that: “March 31 is not an end, but a turning point. The winner of these elections is our democracy.” – Read the rest of the article and comment on Contrbutors.ro