US targets delays in Taiwan weapons deliveries amid warnings of PLA attack by 2027

“That is a specific task by the president to his military forces,” Aquilino said. “When [Xi] gives them a task, they will move out on it.”

Other US military officials and experts, including CIA director William Burns, have also expressed concern about the possibility of Beijing’s being able to attack Taiwan by 2027.

Beijing regards Taiwan as its territory to be brought under control, even if it means resorting to force. Like most countries, the US does not recognize Taiwan as independent but is opposed to any forcible change in the cross-strait status quo.

While Washington maintains formal relations with Beijing rather than Taipei, it has remained committed to supplying Taiwan with weaponry to bolster its defences in the face of persistent threats from the PLA.

However, delays in American arms shipments to Taiwan in recent years have prompted concerns in both the US Congress and Taiwan that this could undermine the island’s military preparedness.

During a meeting with the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on Tuesday, a group of US politicians expressed concern over escalating threats from Beijing.

Mark Alford, one of the group members from the House Armed Services Committee, said there was an urgent need to “reduce the backlog in delivering foreign military sales to Taiwan”, saying swift action was needed to help Taiwan “maintain its defensive capacity against potential military and other forms of coercion”.

He said he and his colleagues were “committed to putting pressure on the powers that be” so Taiwan could receive the weapons and aid it needed.

In response, Chiu said on Wednesday that he felt the US side had “already taken many steps” to speed up the weapons systems deliveries.

“For instance, they have set up a ‘Tiger [Technical, Industrial and Governmental Engagement for Readiness] team’ to help us, whether in discussing our arms acquisitions or expediting the delivery of individual cases to prevent delays. This [approach] is always commendable and the defense ministry welcomes such initiatives,” Chiu said.

The team is tasked with identifying the cause of the delay and resolving it.

According to Washington-based think tank the Cato Institute, there is a substantial backlog of US$19.1 billion worth of weapons ordered by Taiwansome of which have been delayed for a decade or more.

The largest portion consists of US$10.87 billion in traditional arms, followed by US$5.4 billion of asymmetric weapons and US$2.84 billion in ammunition.

The delayed asymmetric weapons included Harpoon coastal defense missiles, MQ-9B unmanned aircraft, and Stinger missiles, Cato said in its March 5 report.

Traditional weapons include F-16C/D Block 70 fighter jets and M1A2T Abrams tanks, while munitions include AGM-84H Standoff Land Attack Missile Expanded Response (SLAM-ER) systems, MK-48 heavyweight torpedoes and AIM-9X Block II missiles.

In a February 7 report, the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which also established a bipartisan Tiger team to identify problems, warned of the risks associated with delays and lack of transparency in foreign military sales, stressing the potential adverse impact on US national security.

“Numerous cases cause delays that directly endanger US national security to date, and for Taiwan alone, 19 outstanding weapons purchases totaling US$22 billion have been approved by Congress but await delivery in 2027 or later. Some cases do not even have anticipated delivery dates assigned,” the report said.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has attributed the backlog to factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptionsexpressing confidence that the industry would eventually catch up.

Analysts cautioned that delayed shipments would have a detrimental impact on Taiwan if the island relied solely on foreign military sales.

“Weapons systems and munitions, especially the large items involving advanced technologies, require considerable time to be combat-ready,” said Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei.

With the increasing threats posed by the PLA, delayed shipments will bring a negative impact on Taiwan’s [combat] readiness

He said it took three to five years to transition newly acquired systems from initial operational capability to full operational capability.

“With the increasing threats posed by the PLAdelayed shipments will bring a negative impact on Taiwan’s [combat] readiness, particularly during the period [leading up to] the Davidson Window, now set for 2027,” he warned.

The “Davidson Window” refers to the time frame suggested by former US Indo-Pacific commander Philip Davidson in which the PLA might potentially target Taiwan.

Huang suggested that in addition to efforts to hurry up suppliers, Taiwan could work with the US government to initiate the training and education phase of the foreign military systems in the United States before delivery.

“Taiwan should also accelerate its military organizational adjustments and personnel recruitment while awaiting the delivery of foreign military sales,” he added.

Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government think tank in Taipei, said: “Normally, weapons ordered now are intended to replace or enhance current combat capabilities within a five-year time frame. Even with delays of two or three years, the impact on our military’s combat readiness would be minimal.”

Su was confident that with the resumption of normal supply chains following the pandemic, America’s weapons delivery to Taiwan would eventually get back on track.

“This approach not only spreads risks but also ensures the retention of indigenous technology in Taiwan,” Su said, pointing out that Taiwan had the capacity to produce over 60 percent of its military equipment and systems.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, domestic production accounts for 64 percent of Taiwan’s arms procurement, with a focus on missiles, constituting 56 percent of total acquisitions.

Chang Yen-ting, a retired Taiwanese air force general, stressed the importance of expedited weapon deliveries. He said delays of five or 10 years could render the delivered weapons outdated or irrelevant to actual battlefield needs by the time they arrive.

“They might not be able to fully utilize their firepower potential due to the emergence of newer technologies, which would render them obsolete,” he said.