I’m fading Blake Snell until proven otherwise.
Following his stellar 2023 Cy Young season, the southpaw has not adapted to his new uniform.
He has allowed a whopping 15 runs across his first 11²/₃ innings in San Francisco, suitable for an ERA of 11.57.
While I expect positive regression — his expected ERA is around 4.00 — I still think Snell is vulnerable and hittable.
The Stuff+ mark on his fastball has dropped 14 points from last year, and he’s not generating as many out-of-zone swings and chases (30% in 2023, 25% in 2024), forcing him to attack the zone more (32% in 2023, 38% in 2024).
And because the Stuff+ rating on his fastball has dropped 14 points (120 in 2023, 106 in 2024), he’s getting hits more in the zone.
I’m similarly concerned about Mets starter Sean Manaea.
He’s lost significant velocity on his fastball, forcing him to nibble around the edges, where he’s already walked 10 batters in 19 innings.
His ground-ball rate has been reduced to a pathetic 28 percent, meaning he’s allowing plenty of hard, fly-ball contact.
Manaea’s ERA is just over four, but his expected ERA is approaching six thanks to his high walk and fly-ball rates.
Meanwhile, these two lineups are red-hot, ranking top-10 in wRC+ over the past two weeks.
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Plus, the wind is projected to blow out toward center field during the game, likely carrying long fly balls and increasing the run environment.
So, I expect a high-scoring game on Wednesday in the Bay between two red-hot lineups, two ice-cold pitchers, and favorable weather conditions.
The play: Mets-Giants Over 7 runs (-105, BetMGM)
