For the first time in the last 30 years, the Republic of Moldova believes that it finally has the ability to kick Russia out of its territory. But Chisinau’s plan also presents a big dilemma: how to do so without triggering a humanitarian crisis for its citizens, Politico reports.
Since gaining independence in the 1990s, Moldova has been locked in a frozen conflict with Moscow over Transnistria, the Kremlin-backed breakaway region on the country’s eastern border that has a population of more than a quarter of million people.
The confrontation was a tense one, but maintained by a strong connection: Moldova receives Russian energy at a favorable price through Transnistria, which receives in exchange hundreds of millions of euros per year.
The link has allowed Russia to retain control of this strategic territory on Moldova’s border with Ukraine, where Moscow has troops stationed despite opposition from the government in Chisinau.
Now, that dynamic is changing. Moldova has integrated more and more with Europe in recent years, under the leadership of the pro-EU president Maia Sandu. Brussels has offered millions of euros and a greater level of access to EU energy supplies – part of a longer process by which one of Europe’s poorest countries prepares for EU membership.
“Moldova is no longer dependent on Transnistria,” Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi told Politico. “When we talk about gas, we buy gas from the international market. Regarding electricity, we are building high voltage lines to connect to Romania.”
A challenge as big as the reunification of Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall
Change is a problem for Transnistria, but also for the Moldovan government. Stopping payments to Transnistria would destroy the budget of the government in Tiraspol and leave hundreds of thousands of people without income and basic services – a challenge that, for a country the size of Moldova, would be equivalent to the reunification of Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
“The elites of Transnistria already recognize that we buy electricity from the region, not because we have to, but because the alternative would be to throw the region into a humanitarian crisis,” said the Moldovan energy minister, Victor Parlicov.
However, the officials are determined: the time has come to break the bond that has blocked Moldova for several generations.
“There is a strong motivation now for us to reintegrate the country peacefully,” said Popsoi, who was appointed foreign minister in January. “Resolving the conflict requires full reintegration and for Moldova to take control of its sovereign borders.”
Transnistria has developed its own armed forces, public services and pension schemes – all financed by the sale of cheap energy from Russia to Moldova.
“The whole region is addicted to free gas like a drug,” said Parlicov, the energy minister. And Moldova has become dependent on low-cost energy.
“We are practically financing separatism in our own country”
The Russian-owned Cuciurgan power station in Transnistria is Moldova’s largest source of energy – it supplies around four-fifths of the country’s energy needs, in exchange for hundreds of millions of euros a year.
“The beauty of things for the Russians was that by purchasing electricity from the Transnistrian region, we were basically financing separatism in our own country,” Parlicov said.
The EU has turned Moscow’s plans upside down. In recent years, Brussels has given Moldova tens of millions of euros for infrastructure and to strengthen the connection with the European energy network.
Revenues from the sale of fuel and energy from Russia, Transnistria developed its industrial sector which would collapse overnight if Moldova stopped the payments.
Moldova knows, however, that if it destroys the engine that keeps Transnistria’s economy alive, it would also affect the locals – the same people whom Chisinau wants to reintegrate into Moldovan society.
“We are talking about around 300,000 people, almost all of them our citizens, and they need access to basic services,” said Parlicov.
Frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space often end in disaster
Transnistrian leaders are unlikely to remain passive. Officials in Tiraspol asked the Kremlin in March to protect them from pressure from Moldova, claiming the country was preparing an economic blockade despite the daily flow of goods and services passing through Russian checkpoints.
Russia’s ability to intervene in the region is limited. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian forces stationed in Tiraspol have been cut off from regular supply lines, unable to bring in reinforcements or new military equipment.
Many of the Russian soldiers served in rotation and settled in Transnistria with their families. And although they have access to one of the largest arsenals of weapons and ammunition in Europe, in the heavily guarded warehouse at Cobasna, the military equipment there is mostly very old.
Other conflicts in the post-Soviet space, such as the one between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ended in disaster. In the case of Moldova, the conflict is not fueled by ethnic tensions – almost all Transnistrians have Moldovan passports and can pass freely through checkpoints guarded by Russian soldiers.
Like Moldovans living in other parts of the country, Transnistrians have nothing but to gain from the economic boom that EU membership would bring, regardless of what Putin’s plans are.
Even if it cannot intervene militarily, Moscow can still create problems for Moldova. Last year, intelligence services in Kiev warned that the Russians were planning a coup to oust Maia Sandu from power, using a pro-Russian opposition party to topple the government.
The parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for October will be a critical moment for what Moldova’s future will look like – and a new chance for outside forces such as Russia to try to influence their outcome.
“The EU must continue to help Moldova with energy so that it becomes fully independent from Russia,” said Ivana Stradner, a researcher at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “And we have to make sure that if things escalate, we’re not afraid of Putin’s provocations in the country – if we don’t want the West to be seen as a paper tiger, we have to be ready to help Moldova.”
Editor: Raul Nețoiu
Tags: Politico Moldova overthrow Russias Tiraspol puppet regime Transnistrias economy collapse overnight
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