China and Taiwan’s “boiled frog” strategy. USA: Alarm for the Philippines too

China uses the “boiled frog” strategy to put the world, sooner or later, in front of the fait accompli of the reunification (or annexation, depending on the point of view) of Taiwan, according to Rador Radio Romania.

The strategy mentioned above involves boiling the frog (democratic island) on low heat, gradually raising the temperature of the water until the frog is completely cooked, almost without realizing it. In reality, Xi Jinping would increase the pressure little by little, through actions that do not constitute a “casus belli”, which are understated and therefore do not provoke a strong response from Taipei and the United States, as he said in an interview for the Financial Times John Aquilino, the US commander of the Indo-Pacific theater

The official, who is nearing the end of his mission, says that in his three years in the region he has seen a steady increase in tension caused by Chinese forces, who have increased their aggression: “They are becoming bolder and more dangerous. , for them “force is equal to rights”, denounces Aquilino.

The admiral recalls August 2022, when Beijing launched ten days of major fire drills around Taiwan, on the occasion of a visit to Taipei by then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Dozens of Chinese bombers flew into the strait and missiles were launched. And after that show of force, now incursions by Red Star aircraft across the median line of the Straits (an unofficial but respected border for decades) have become almost normal.

At the same time, Chinese coast guard units began patrolling the waters around Kinmen and Matsu islands, which are controlled by the Taiwanese and considered a possible target of a first phase of a large-scale attack

The last time the Chinese “turned up the heat” was on Saturday morning, hours after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left Beijing. Within three hours, Taipei’s defenses spotted 22 Chinese aircraft in the strait, and 12 Su-30 fighter jets passed over the median line. A signal to reiterate what Xi and his foreign minister Wang Yi had just told Blinken: “Taiwan is an internal issue, a red line.” Now, the action has become so commonplace that it doesn’t even deserve an official protest, or a story in the international press.

Aquilino warns that Beijing’s generals are “boiling the frog” around the Philippines, especially at Second Thomas Shoal, the atoll in the Spratlys that, according to international law, is in Manila’s exclusive economic zone. In 1999, the Filipinos scuttled an old landing ship, the Sierra Madre, at Second Thomas, and are keeping a patrol of soldiers there to claim national sovereignty. But Beijing has been aggressively preventing the supply and transport of materials to repair the wreck for months: Chinese Coast Guard units are using water cannons and cutting off the route of Philippine boats. The objective is to take down the outpost without firing a single shot. The Chinese have already raised their flag on seven Spratlys islands and built others in the South China Sea, filling the atolls with sand and concrete and then fortifying them with artillery batteries and airstrips.

Is it still possible to stop the fire under the pot in which the Taiwanese frog is boiling? Aquilino even offers a recipe: “Preventing conflict requires a sense of urgency on our part and speed in the provision of modern defense systems.” President Joe Biden just signed legislation passed by Congress to send $8 billion worth of military supplies to Taiwan.

Source: IL CORRIERE DELLA SERA / Rador Radio Romania / Translation: Cătălina Păunel