Hundreds of leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise by at least 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5F) above pre-industrial levels this century, exceeding internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and planet.
Almost 80% of respondents, all from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict global warming of at least 2.5 degrees Celsius, while almost half of them anticipate at least 3 degrees Celsius (5.4F). Only 6% of respondents believe that the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) will be respected.
Many scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famine, conflict and mass migration, caused by heat waves, fires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already hit.
Many experts said they were left hopeless, angry and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.
“I think we’re headed for a major societal disruption in the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, from the University of Tasmania. “The authorities will be overwhelmed by extreme events after extreme events, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel more despair about the future.”
But many said the climate fight must continue, no matter how big the rise in global temperatures, because every fraction of a degree avoided would reduce human suffering.
Peter Cox, of the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5C – it is already dangerous. And it will not be ‘game over’ if we go beyond 2C, which is it could happen”.
The Guardian contacted every lead author or editor of the 2018 IPCC reports. Almost half responded, 380 out of 843. The IPCC reports are the standard assessments of climate change, endorsed by all governments and produced by experts in the physical and social sciences. The results show that many of the best-informed people on the planet expect climate chaos to unfold in the coming decades.
The authorities will be overtaken by extreme phenomena
The climate crisis is already causing profound damage to life and livelihoods around the world, with global warming of only 1.2C (2.16F) on average over the past four years. Jesse Keenan, from Tulane University in the US, said: “This is just the beginning: fasten your seat belts.”
Nathalie Hilmi of the Monaco Science Centre, which expects a rise of 3C, agreed: “We cannot stay below 1.5C”.
Experts have said that massive preparations to protect people from the worst climate disasters to come are now essential. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, from the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am extremely concerned about the cost in human lives.”
The 1.5 degree C target was chosen to prevent the worst effects of the climate crisis. Current climate policies mean the world is heading for around 2.7 degrees C, and the Guardian poll shows that few IPCC experts expect the world to take the huge action needed to reduce that level.
Younger researchers were more pessimistic, with 52% of respondents under 50 expecting a rise of at least 3 degrees C, compared to 38% of those over 50. Female researchers were also more pessimistic than men, with 49% of them believing that the global temperature will rise by at least 3 degrees C, compared to 38%. There were no great differences between scientists from different continents.
Dipak Dasgupta, of the Institute for Energy and Resources in New Delhi, said: “If the world, however incredibly rich it is, stands by and does nothing to solve the plight of the poor, eventually we will everyone loses”.
Experts have clearly explained why the world is failing to address the climate crisis. Almost three-quarters of respondents cited a lack of political will, while 60% also blamed corporate interests such as the fossil fuel industry.
No solutions to the climate crisis
Many also mentioned inequality and the failure of the rich world to help the poor, who suffer the most from climate impacts. “I expect a semi-dystrophic future, with substantial pain and suffering for the population of the global south,” said a South African scientist, who preferred not to be named. “The world’s response so far is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.”
About a quarter of IPCC experts who responded believed that this increase in global temperature would be kept to 2 degrees C or less, but even they tempered their hopes.
“I am convinced that we have all the necessary solutions for a 1.5C trajectory and that we will implement them in the next 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt of the UN’s Copenhagen Climate Center. “But I fear that our actions may come too late.”
Lisa Schipper, from the University of Bonn, Germany, said: “My only source of hope is that, as an educator, I see that the next generation is so intelligent and understands politics.”
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Tags: phenomenon planet closer Climatologists Famine conflict mass migration
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