Russia is now stepping up its efforts to capture Ceasiv Yar, a strategic bastion in eastern Ukraine that depleted and underequipped Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend as they await US military aid, according to analysis by the Financial Times, Reuters and the Institute for the Study of War. .
Ukrainian soldiers in Ceasiv IarPhoto: Aziz Karimov / Zuma Press / Profimedia
Up to 25,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the city in recent weeks, according to a spokesman for Ukrainian ground forces in the east.
But Moscow’s forces are also pressing into other hot spots along the front line, trying to capture as much territory as possible before Western help arrives.
Ceasiv Iar is considered a major prize for Moscow, with senior Ukrainian commanders claiming the Russian General Staff has ordered its forces to capture it by May 9, when Russia celebrates the end of World War II.
The importance of the small town is primarily strategic, say analysts and the Ukrainian military. A Ukrainian withdrawal from Cheasiv Iar could jeopardize the entire defense of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known collectively as Donbas.
Perched atop a hill, the city provides Ukraine with one of the last natural barriers protecting important supply lines and, 30 kilometers to the north, the regional capital Kramatorsk.
“Ceasiv Iar is a center of gravity for the defensive line in the region,” Viktor Kevliuk, a military analyst at the Center for Defense Strategies, a Kiev-based security think-tank, told the Financial Times.
And the Russian air force is attacking Ceasiv Iar, dropping more than 30 powerful bombs every day, according to a spokesman for the 26th Artillery Brigade deployed in the city.
These Soviet-era bombs, upgraded with small wings and navigation systems, allow Russia to better target Ukrainian positions. Upon impact, a glide bomb can leave craters up to 20 meters wide and 6 meters deep.
An important natural barrier
Both camps are now fighting for control of the villages of Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, located in the valley on the flanks of the city, with Russian troops so far unable to enter the city proper.
Ceasiv Iar’s defenses depend largely on a 30-meter-wide canal that runs along the eastern edge of the city. The Soviet-era structure, which was used to divert water from the Donets River to supply the region’s metallurgical industries, is an obstacle for armored vehicles.
On Tuesday, Russian troops were approaching the canal.
A bridge spanning the canal connects the main part of the city to the small residential district of Kanal, which Russian soldiers briefly entered earlier this month and which has since been devastated by artillery fire and airstrikes.
Two stretches totaling about 1.5 km, where the canal is covered, provide “convenient places for attacks,” said Kevliuk of the Center for Defense Strategies.
He added that enemy forces have been “attacking very hard here for the past two weeks, so far without success.”
A Ukrainian reconnaissance platoon commander operating in the Ceasiv Iar area explained on April 30 that Russian special operations forces have begun operating more frequently at night and that they are continuing efforts to flank the city through Bodanivka from the north east, and Ivanivske, from the east, and that they are deploying reinforcements to reach the Siverskîi-Donetsk Donbas canal.
He said the Russian military was first deploying units of Storm-Z and Storm-V convicts to carry out the first wave of assaults on the city, followed by mechanized or airborne assaults to reinforce the new positions.
An entire line of defense could be encircled
Capturing or bypassing the town of Ceasiv Iar would allow Russian artillery, drones and bombs to threaten the town of Kosteantînivka. Moscow could also disrupt or cut entirely the supply lines that pass through the city, which Ukraine has used to support defense efforts in the northern and southern parts of the Donbas region.
It took the Russian military almost a year to advance six kilometers from the devastated city of Bahmut to the edge of Ceasiv Iar.
But recent advances have been much faster, with Russian units further south advancing seven kilometers in depth in less than two weeks to capture the village of Oheretine.
“The territory that the Russians have been able to cover in recent months was good defensive ground for Ukraine,” Rob Lee, a military analyst and fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, told the Financial Times.
“Now, Russia could advance faster. In addition, conquering Ceasiv Iar would make other areas much more difficult to defend,” he said.
Recent Russian advances south of the Ceasiv Iar have only increased the city’s significance, increasing the risk of an encirclement.
If Russian forces advancing near Oheretine could make gains along the road leading to Kosteantînivka, the “entire line of defense” in the area, which the Russians had failed to overcome since the start of the full-scale invasion, would could be encircled, said Mikola Melnik, a Ukrainian officer and former brigade commander.
“I am sure that Ukrainian political and military leaders are aware of this problem and are working to solve it,” he said.
Ukrainian soldiers are waiting for more weapons
Ukrainian forces defending Ceasiv Iar meanwhile say they are still waiting for fresh ammunition after the United States approved a major military aid package.
Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Battalion, which is fighting near Cheasiv Iar, said more artillery shells would help his unit hold its positions.
“I hope we get artillery shells soon,” he told Reuters, speaking at a command post near the city. He added that munitions supplied by allies had made a significant difference on the battlefield in the past.
“I witnessed the events of a year ago when Wagner was advancing,” he said, referring to a strong Russian mercenary force that has since been disbanded. “We received cluster munitions that significantly changed the situation and we were able to successfully counterattack,” explained the military.
More trained troops and long-range weapons would also help Ukraine defend its territory more effectively, Shyriaiev said.
“If we get long-range weapons, our leaders will cut off (Russian forces’) access to logistics and supply,” he said.
A devastated city
Meanwhile, the city itself was almost completely reduced to ruins. About 700 people from a pre-war population of 12,000 still live here, according to local authorities.
Deprived of gas, electricity or water for almost a year, Ceasiv Iar was largely turned into a military bastion, accessible only by bumpy roads.
While the devastated Kanal neighborhood has been emptied of civilians, more than 30 people still live in small houses in the most heavily bombed neighborhoods on the eastern edge of the city, according to the local military-civilian administration.
Both analysts and Ukrainian forces expect Russia to step up its attacks in the coming days in an attempt to capitalize on its advantage before weapons from the first tranche of the US aid package can reach the front lines.
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