Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed the statements of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Sirski, about the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from two settlements near Okretyn, in the Donetsk region, the BBC reports.
Sirski admitted that in this area the Russian army has a significant advantage, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to retreat west of Berdychi and Semenovka. Both villages are located in the penetration zone of Russian troops in the Oceretine region, west of Avdiivka.
According to ISW, the Russian military has not been able to advance really quickly in the area, and this indicates that “Ukrainian forces are maintaining positions and resources there that have so far slowed down the Russian offensive in the western direction.”
“Recent Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka have forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw from other limited tactical positions on the front west of Avdiivka, but this withdrawal has not yet resulted in rapid tactical gains for Russia,” the report’s authors said. “It is still unlikely that Russian troops will be able to achieve a deeper and operationally significant advance in the near future.”
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that Russia “will likely continue to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka area, and the Ukrainian command may decide to withdraw further if Russian troops threaten other Ukrainian tactical positions.” However, Ukrainian forces can use the terrain to slow down the Russian military, the report said.
According to its authors, the Russian army has the opportunity to achieve operationally significant objectives in the city of Ceasov Yar, but instead spends its energy on expanding and deepening the penetration near Oceretine, where achieving such objectives is much less realistic .
Experts believe that “Russian troops will likely have to resupply and reinforce their assault units and slow the pace of their offensive west of Avdivka, unless they commit additional reserves to the battle.”
“This is likely to limit Russia’s ability to make rapid new tactical gains in the area,” the authors of the ISW report state.
Tags: Withdrawal Ukrainian armed forces Oceretin lead rapid tactical gains Russia
