Don’t just assume Trump will support Russia if he returns to the White House, says Polish foreign minister

US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine is “not as black and white as some people think,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said in an interview with Axel Springer. the parent company of POLITICO.

Internationally, there are fears that Trump is an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he has called a “genius” and “wise man” for his invasion of Ukraine. Trump only exacerbated this view after his partisans in the US Congress caused long delays in passing the new military and financial package given to Kiev.

Sikorski, however, argued that the picture is more nuanced, even as Poland launches a broader diplomatic campaign to try to convince Trump of the dangers posed by Putin’s Russia.

“Donald Trump was right to urge all of us in Europe to spend more on defense,” he said, adding that Trump had sent anti-tank missiles to Ukraine “before the war, when others weren’t.”

For Poland, Russia’s advances in Ukraine mean any weakening of the US commitment to NATO is an existential threat, and Warsaw is keen to lobby and curry favor with Trump ahead of a potential return to the White House. Trump recently threatened not to defend European countries that don’t spend enough on defense.

Warsaw spends about 4 percent of its gross domestic product on defense — twice the NATO target — and is asking the alliance to raise the threshold to 3 percent.

There are early signs that Polish efforts may already be having an effect. After meeting with President Andrzej Duda in New York earlier this month, Trump noted that Ukraine’s “survival and strength” was important to the US and said he would “support Poland to the end”.

Sikorski also noted that Trump’s final lack of protest over the $60 billion Ukraine package suggested the former president’s attitude toward Ukraine was changing.

“I haven’t heard any protests,” he said. “So I hope that candidate Trump has seen that this opposition to helping Ukraine is actually not popular in the United States, that it’s hurting his chances” of being re-elected.

Poland, in Putin’s sights

Sikorski has no doubt that the Russian threat to Poland is – again – very real.

“Russia has attacked Poland many times in our 500-year history,” Sikorski said, adding that he “wouldn’t be at all surprised” if it happened again.

Although Sikorski is confident that Russia would lose a war with NATO because he believes the West is “much stronger than Russia”, he warned that “we should not assume that things will go our way”.

“We have a choice: Either we have a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine, or a victorious Russian army on the border with Poland. And what Putin would do then is what Hitler did in Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to move forward,” said Sikorski.

“You know, half of the German tanks that invaded Poland in 1939 were actually Czech. So if Putin conquers Ukraine, he will be stronger. And the challenge for us would be greater… It is better to stop Putin in Ukraine, 500-700 km east of here,” he continued.

Sikorski also criticized “Europe’s defense de-industrialisation”.

He was cautious about getting too deep into German political debates, but said he hoped Chancellor Olaf Scholz would take a cue from the US – which has now sent long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. It was a hint that Germany should send Taurus missiles to Kiev in response to Russian attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

“I hope the chancellor is encouraged by the events of the last few days. Well, the United States has supplied long-range missiles to Ukraine: the famous ATACMS with a range of 300 km. And I hope your chancellor appreciates that it is a response to the Russian escalation, which is drastic,” he said.

“There was a conference in Berlin about the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war. Well, how about preventing its destruction? So, I think it would be better that way.”