Russian forces pose a real threat to capture Ceasov Iar, although they may not be able to do so quickly. The capture of the city of Ceasov Iar will allow Russian troops to launch other offensive operations against the cities that form an important Ukrainian defense belt in the Donetsk region, writes the Ukrainian publication Pravda.
Military analysts noted that Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka could provide tactical advantages. And the Russian offensive operation to capture the city of Ceasov Iar opens up immediate prospects for Russian troops to make a significant operational advance.
Russian forces in the Avdiivka area remain about 30 kilometers from their operational objective in Pokrovsk and about 17 kilometers from relatively large villages east of Pokrovsk.
Even if Russian tactical advances force Ukrainian forces to withdraw to positions further west, the current Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka are unlikely to become operationally significant in the short term.
Russian pressure on Ceasov Iar is high. Russian troops now on the eastern outskirts of Ceasov Iar have stepped up their efforts to capture the city as of March 2024.
Russian forces are likely trying to grab as much territory as possible before US military assistance arrives. These weapons will significantly improve Ukraine’s defenses in the coming weeks, and Russian military commanders may step up offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka, as this area offers greater opportunities for quick tactical gains, despite the relative lack of operational significance of these advances.
Key ISW findings for April 25:
- Russian forces will stabilize their small advance northwest of Avdiivka and may gain additional tactical advantages that could force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the front line west of Avdiivka to a better line defended.
- Russian offensive operations west of Avdievka are intended to exploit opportunities for tactical advantage, while the Russian offensive to capture Ceasov Iar offers Russian forces immediate prospects for significant operational advances.
- US officials are concerned that the latest military aid package for Ukraine may not be enough to allow Ukraine to regain all of its territory. Moreover, American military assistance is only part of what Ukraine needs now. But Ukraine itself is struggling to address other warfighting needs, particularly in terms of personnel issues and the expansion of its defense industrial base.
- Russian troops are reportedly deploying drones in critical frontline sectors that have been adapted to be more resilient to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, likely in an attempt to exploit new technological capabilities to take advantage of the limited time before American security assistance to reach Ukraine.
- A well-known Russian military blogging channel close to the Kremlin has announced the opening of a “media school” in the Balkans, in what appears to be support for the Kremlin’s efforts to expand its influence in the international information space.
- French President Emmanuel Macron, in a speech on April 25, emphasized the importance of European self-sufficiency for its defense and sovereignty.
- Recently, Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances near Seversk, and Russian forces near Avdiivka and on the border between the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions.
- On April 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin justified Russia’s efforts to nationalize Russian enterprises, including enterprises from the military-industrial base.
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