The arrest of Russia’s deputy defense minister could be a blow by a rival “clan” (Reuters analysis)

Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, has tried to send a message of ‘business as usual’ since his deputy was arrested for bribery, but the unfolding scandal looks bad for him as well and is seen as an attempt by a rival clan to weaken your power, writes Reuters on Friday in an extensive analysis cited by Agerpres.

At first glance, the moment of Tuesday’s detention of Timur Ivanov, one of Shoigu’s 12 deputy ministers, was unexpected, given that Russia is waging a war in Ukraine, and the authorities have made discrediting the army a crime that can be punished with imprisonment.

Accusations of taking bribes to finance a lifestyle far beyond his means, leveled against Ivanov (48) by the anti-corruption foundation (FBK) of the late dissident Aleksei Navalny, were made public over a year ago. year, apparently without consequences.

Yet this week, state television suddenly showed Russians a bewildered Ivanov – who denies his guilt – in full military uniform, in a clear plastic cage in a courtroom, of the type that many enemies of the Kremlin occupied before him.

His arrest – say Russian political analysts, including former power insiders – shows how the war exposes internal struggles between “clans” fighting for wealth and influence in the harsh Russian political system, according to Reuters.

The clans—alliances between like-minded officials or businessmen—are centered around the military, intelligence and law enforcement agencies, the military-industrial complex, and also include a group of people from St. Petersburg, the city birthplace of President Vladimir Putin, whom I have known personally for many years.

“Someone in the elite didn’t like the fact that Shoigu became too powerful,” Tatiana Stanovaia, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told Reuters.

“This does not come from Putin, but from people close to Putin who believe that Shoigu played his card too much. It is simply a fight against someone and a minister who has become too powerful and an attempt to balance the situation”, she opines.

Abbas Galiamov, former Kremlin speechwriter, currently designated as a “foreign agent” by the authorities, says that he too saw Ivanov’s arrest as an attack on Shoigu to weaken his position, reports Agerpres.

“Ivanov is one of the closest people to Shoigu. His arrest shortly before the appointment of a new government suggests that the chances of the current minister to remain in his seat are decreasing dramatically,” he said.

Ivanov was arrested following an investigation by the counterintelligence division of the Federal Security Service (FSB), according to Russian state media.

Ivanov’s case is the most high-profile corruption case since Putin sent troops to Ukraine in 2022. State media reported that Shoigu fired Ivanov from office.

The scandal comes just two weeks before Putin is sworn in for a fifth presidential term and before a government reshuffle expected next month, in which Shoigu’s position will, theoretically, be up for grabs.

Ivanov was in charge of lucrative military construction and procurement contracts and is accused of taking huge sums in bribes in the form of services worth at least one billion rubles ($10.8 million), according to media reports Russian, in exchange for awarding Ministry of Defense contracts to certain companies.

While few are willing to bet that Shoigu will lose his job over the scandal, given his loyalty to Putin, Ivanov’s arrest is seen as a reversal for his boss, whose influence and access to the Kremlin leader have increased due to his key role in the war in Ukraine.

The Moscow Times quoted a high-ranking government official who described the arrest as a serious blow to Shoigu’s camp, as well as a source close to the Ministry of Defense who said the arrest was more about politics and about “weakening the position of Sergei Shoigu ” than about Ivanov.

Shoigu and the military’s top leadership have at times been the focus of virulent criticism from war bloggers and Russian nationalists who have accused them of incompetence, particularly after a series of withdrawals in 2022.

Shoigu survived a failed coup led by Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has since died in a plane crash, and who last June orchestrated a march on Moscow to try to oust him from power. post, but his authority was affected. Putin said those events could have plunged Russia into civil war.

Since then, Şoigu has managed to regain Putin’s trust, but the arrest of his deputy represents a new setback.

“Indirectly, it harms Şoigu. Questions arise. How is it that a person who was close to him and whom he brought managed to steal so much under his nose?” said Tatiana Stanovaia from Carnegie.

Serghei Markov, a former adviser to the Kremlin, believes that Shoigu, in office since 2012, will keep his post anyway. “Everyone is wondering if this could be a signal to Shoigu that he will not be in the next government after May 7,” Markov wrote on his official blog.

“Be calm! Will be. Shoigu created a new army after the disastrous year 2022, which repelled the offensive of the Ukrainian army in 2023. And in 2024, the army is already advancing,” says Markov.

There is much about the context of Ivanov’s arrest that remains unknown. There are several theories circulating in Moscow regarding the fact that the bribery charge is not the whole story, there are unconfirmed media reports that he could also be charged with treason, which his lawyer denied.

Some have suggested that perhaps his preference for the Western way of life, at a time when Putin says Russia is engaged in an existential struggle with the West, could be the cause of his downfall.

Others believe that his family’s penchant for luxury vacations in Europe, yacht charters, Rolls-Royce cars and lavish parties was fine before the war, but is now seen as a “plague-time feast”, a Russian literary reference.

Shoigu remained silent on the scandal, inspecting a space launch facility this week as if nothing had happened.

The Kremlin told journalists to rely only on official sources and made it clear that the often vast construction projects that Ivanov oversaw – such as the reconstruction of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol – would not be affected.