Russia has long targeted Ukraine’s key infrastructure, but recent developments are far more serious and far more devastating. At the same time, in a short time, the “weapon” was taken from Putin’s hand, which allowed the Kremlin regime to terrorize Europe.
Russia’s energy blackmail ends with Ukraine’s decision not to extend natural gas transit to the West from December 31, 2024.
Two NATO countries, Hungary and Slovakia, along with another neutral, Austria, are begging Kiev to let Russian gas flow to Europe through its pipeline, saying they are unable to end their dependence on it, according to CEPA.
Russia’s military is doubling down on attacks to degrade Ukraine’s energy system. This campaign has increased in scope since last year, now targeting entire thermal plants and larger-scale power facilities, rather than smaller power grid substations and transformers – with rebuilding timelines and costs skyrocketing.
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There is another trend developing. Russia is also targeting large-scale gas storage facilities located in western Ukraine that contain gas for Central and Western Europe. These include attacks against Ukraine’s underground storage system (UGS) for natural gas, operated by Ukraine’s state-owned Naftogaz, including a facility in the Lviv region on April 11.
Russia’s attacks have a dual objective. First, they further exacerbate Ukraine’s domestic energy crisis just as Kyiv begins its annual spring drive to stockpile gas to help the country survive the 2024-25 winter. At the same time, the campaign again emphasizes Moscow’s energy harmonization with the rest of Europe, given that these storage places have been partially reserved by European gas traders, including 2.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 alone, which it represents about 10% of Ukraine’s storage capacity.
These attacks represent the first time that such a significant segment of Ukraine’s gas network, which not only Ukrainians but several other European nations rely on, has faced direct targeting by Putin’s forces.
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Although the Kremlin has rather indiscriminately bombed the electricity grid and power generation facilities over the past two years, a significant component of the energy infrastructure has been largely spared: Ukraine’s gas transmission system (GTS) itself, a strategic asset that Russia still relies on delivering gas to European customers under the existing contract that was signed between Naftogaz and Kremlin-controlled Gazprom in 2020.
The 2020 agreement was for five years of continuous transit of Russian gas through the GTS; expires in December. This means Europe is once again facing the end of Ukraine’s historic role as Europe’s main transit pipeline for Russian gas. Ukrainian officials were determined to abandon Kiev’s decades-long role as a transit country for Russian gas to Europe.
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Politically, some European states will pressure Kiev to continue “business as usual” with Moscow. And while Russia’s share of EU imports fell from 33 percent to less than 10 percent from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, the value of its gas supplies almost held up because of higher prices.
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Of course, Kiev wants to end this turbulent relationship, which not only fuels Russia’s war machine, but has been repeatedly used for political blackmail, often leaving consumers without heating in the freezing winter months.
Countries such as Austria, Slovakia and Hungary are among those who say they are unable to quickly end their dependence on Russian gas, although they have had two years to make alternative plans. Of course, each of these countries could secure alternative supplies from places like Norway, or tap into the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market through the growing number of such import facilities that dot Europe’s coasts.
The real reason may be the large profits they can make from keeping contractual agreements with Putin’s Russia, as well as the Kremlin’s traditional tactics of strategic corruption and elite capture for anything and anyone associated with Russian energy in Europe. The differences between relatively cheaper Russian gas imports and expensive prices on the European market may even help Russia find new customers in the EU and beyond.
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Kremlin-friendly governments such as those of Hungary and Slovakia could meanwhile flex their political muscles in an attempt to pressure Ukraine to extend the Gazprom transit contract. This carries clear risks of Russia using Ukraine’s vast gas transportation system to rebuild its EU market share.
There can be no return to business as usual with Putin on energy. For the sake of Europe’s energy and national security goals in the face of an increasingly belligerent Kremlin, this is an outcome transatlantic leaders must avoid at all costs.
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