A Ukrainian brigade disappeared from the front and the Russians almost broke through the defense. “The soldiers simply ran away”

War in Ukraine. The Russian army has advanced significantly along a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine, west of Avdiivka. Russian troops advanced 5 km in 10 days and reached the town of Ocheretine, which the Russians claim to have fully occupied, but it is unclear how much of it they actually control. How was it possible? A Ukrainian brigade disappeared, and a Russian brigade almost broke through the defenses, Forbes explains.

By the Observator editorial team on 24.04.2024, 17:29

The famous Magura 47th Mechanized Brigade, one of the best in the Ukrainian army, equipped with American armor and trained by NATO, has been fighting for almost a year without a break at the front and almost got one last week. The brigade with 2,000 soldiers was supposed to be withdrawn from the west of the city of Avdiivka, conquered by the Russians in February, for a rotation on the front, reports Forbes.

The planned pause was an invitation for the Russian military to come close to inflicting the kind of painful defeat on the Ukrainians that the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians in Kharkiv in the fall of 2022. As the 47th Brigade withdrew this weekend from the front lines , east of the village of Ocheretine, the Russians attacked and nearly broke through the Ukrainian defensive lines to advance on the 30 km strip of land separating the Ukrainian-held town of Pokrovsk from the front line.

According to The Guardian, the capture of the village of Ocheretine also means that the Russians managed to bypass the northern flank of the defense line recently built by the Ukrainians, including minefields and trenches. The village which had 3,000 people before the war is also a local road and rail junction, and is practically at the intersection of a defense network.

What happened to the 115th Brigade of the Ukrainians?

The 47th Brigade was to be replaced at the front by the 115th Mechanized Brigade. But something went wrong. Mykola Melnyk, a famous brigade commander who lost a leg during last summer’s counteroffensive, claims that “certain units simply ran.”

The Russians monitoring the Ukrainian positions from the air or on the ground expected to run into the trenches over the new troops of the 115th Brigade, but found none. The 30th Brigade of the Russian army seized the opportunity and advanced along a railway leading west of Avdiivka. He managed to capture a narrow strip of land, but 3-5 km long that passes through the Ukrainian defense up to the middle of the village of Ocheretine, claims David Axe, military analyst at Forbes.

A breakthrough by the Russians could have collapsed the entire Ukrainian defense

A Russian breakthrough could have collapsed the entire Ukrainian defense west of Avdiivka and forced tens of thousands of soldiers and even hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee the Donetsk region. A similar breakthrough by the Ukrainians in Kharkiv in the fall of 2022 caused a major defeat for the Russian army, the quoted source recalls.

The only reason the Russians didn’t advance deeper over the weekend is because the 47th Brigade came back out of the way and joined the fight. “The 47th Mechanized Brigade is back,” Melnyk wrote. Over the next two days, the Russians slightly expanded their conquered territory, but did not advance further west.

Ukraine has avoided the disaster, for now, draws attention to the quoted source. However, the battle is still on. If the Russians move reserves here they can extend their advance. It is worth noting that the 90th Tank Division of the Russian Army is located nearby and is not currently engaged in combat.

Ukraine lost two brigades in a few weeks

The good news for the Ukrainian military is that American aid is on the way, including ammunition and Bradley fighting vehicles for the 47th Brigade. will most likely be reduced by the arrival of American and Western aid,” noted the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

The bad news is that what went wrong with Brigade 115 appears to be somewhat systemic. It is the second Ukrainian unit to collapse on the eastern front in recent weeks. The first unit to fire was the 67th Brigade, which was defending a district at the edge of the city of Ceasiv Iar. Due to internal squabbles, the Ministry of Defense in Kiev was eventually forced to disband the brigade recognized as having many right-wing extremists in its ranks.

The Ukrainian ground forces have only 100 combat brigades, and many of them are exhausted after months or years of non-stop fighting. Ukraine cannot afford to lose two whole brigades at the moment, nor to exhaust the best ones. Billions of dollars worth of new weapons are on the way, but those weapons are useless if there aren’t enough trained and well-rested soldiers to use them.