China is using the “boiled frog” strategy to put the world, sooner or later, in front of the fait accompli of reunification (or annexation, depending on the point of view) with Taiwan, writes Il Corriere della Sera.
The strategy involves boiling the frog (democratic island) on low heat, gradually raising the temperature of the water until the frog is completely cooked, almost without realizing it. In reality, Xi Jinping is increasing the pressure little by little, through actions that do not constitute a “casus belli”, which are understated and therefore do not provoke a strong response from Taipei and the United States, as he said in a interview for the Financial Times John Aquilino, the US commander of the Indo-Pacific theater.
The official, who is nearing the end of his mission, says that in his three years in the region he has seen a steady increase in tension caused by Chinese forces, who have increased their aggression: “They are becoming bolder and more dangerous, for they “force equals rights”, denounces Aquilino.
The admiral recalls August 2022, when Beijing launched ten days of major fire drills around Taiwan, on the occasion of then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.
Dozens of Chinese bombers flew into the strait and missiles were launched. After that show of force, now incursions by Red Star aircraft across the median line of the Straits (an unofficial but respected border for decades) have become almost normal.
At the same time, Chinese coast guard units began patrolling the waters around Kinmen and Matsu islands, which are controlled by the Taiwanese and considered a possible target of a first phase of a large-scale attack.
The last time the Chinese “turned up the heat” was last Saturday, hours after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left Beijing.
Within three hours, Taipei’s defenses spotted 22 Chinese aircraft in the strait, and 12 Su-30 fighter jets passed over the median line. A signal to reiterate what Xi and his foreign minister Wang Yi had just told Blinken: “Taiwan is an internal issue, a red line.” Now, the action has become so commonplace that it doesn’t even deserve an official protest, or a story in the international press.
Aquilino warns that Beijing’s generals are “boiling the frog” around the Philippines, particularly at Second Thomas Shoal, the atoll in the Spratlys that under international law is in Manila’s exclusive economic zone.
In 1999, the Filipinos beached an old landing ship, the Sierra Madre, at Second Thomas, and are keeping a patrol of soldiers there to claim national sovereignty. But Beijing has been aggressively preventing the supply and transport of materials to repair the wreck for months: Chinese Coast Guard units are using water cannons and cutting off the route of Philippine boats. The objective is to take down the outpost without firing a single shot.
The Chinese have already raised their flag on seven islands
Spratlys and built others in the South China Sea, filling atolls with sand and concrete and then fortifying them with artillery batteries and airstrips.
Is it still possible to stop the fire under the pot in which the Taiwanese frog is boiling?
Aquilino even offers a recipe: “Preventing conflict requires a sense of urgency on our part and speed in the provision of modern defense systems.” President Joe Biden just signed legislation passed by Congress to send $8 billion worth of military supplies to Taiwan.
Source: RADOR RADIO ROMANIA
Tags: China Taiwans boiled frog strategy USA Alarm Philippines
