European parliamentary elections: the PSD-PNL alliance, AUR and the United Right Alliance, in the top of Romanians’ preferences

According to the opinion poll carried out by INSCOP Research commissioned by News.ro in April 2024, the PSD-PNL alliance leads in Romanians’ preferences for the European Parliament elections, followed by the AUR and the United Right Alliance.

Remus Ștefureac – director of INSCOP Research: “Almost 60% of Romanians declare that they will appear in the European parliamentary and local elections on June 9. Even if the actual turnout will be closer to 50%, the statements of the survey participants indicate a high level of interest in the two types of elections, which is gratifying for Romanian democracy. On the other hand, young people still seem somewhat less mobilized to participate in the civic exercise of voting. Also, correlated with the lower level of youth mobilization, we observe that AUR voters are less mobilized than PSD or United Right Alliance voters – who are currently the most confident of turning out to vote.
Regarding the voting intention, we note an increase in the percentage for the PSD-PNL Alliance and significant decreases in the case of AUR and SOS Romania. Practically, AUR together with SOS Romania cumulatively lose approximately 6 percent in the last month from 27% to 21% (minus 4 percent in the case of AUR and minus 2 percent in the case of SOS Romania). The reactivation of Romanians’ fears of war, but also the approach of the election, which puts voters in front of responsible choices, may have contributed to this negative trend for the two formations.”

Estimated turnout for combined European parliamentary and local elections

59.2% of Romanians declare that they will definitely vote in the European parliamentary and local elections on June 9. On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means that “definitely no” will vote and 10 “definitely yes” will vote, 14.7% of Romanians chose 1, 0.5% chose 2, 2% have chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 6.6% chose 5, 1.7% chose 6, 3.2% chose 7. 7.2% indicated 8, 3.7% indicated 9 and 59.2% indicated 10.
ADU (76%) and PSD-PNL voters (69%), people aged between 45 and 59 (67%) and those with higher education (67%) declare in a higher proportion than average that they will go definitely on the ballot.

Voting intention for political parties in the European Parliament elections related to respondents who express their preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they come to vote safely or not – 74.4% of the total sample

Compared to those who expressed their preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they are coming to vote or not (74.4% of the total sample), 46.6% of Romanians would vote with the PSD-PNL alliance (compared to 43.7% in March) , 16.7% with AUR (20.6% in March), 13.8% with United Right Alliance (USR, PMP, FD) (13.7% in March). 5.1% of voters would vote for UDMR (3.9% in March), and 4.5% would vote for SOS Romania (6.4% in March). Pro Romania would get 2.7% of the total votes (3.7% in March), the Romanian Ecologist Party 2.4%, the Green Party 2% (Arianța AER 3.4% in March), REPER 1.8% (0.9% in March), and PUSL 1.5%. 2.8% of respondents express their preference for another party (3.7% in March).

Methodology: The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research at the request of the news agency News.ro. The data were collected between April 12 and 20, 2024. Research method: interview via questionnaire. The data were collected by the CATI method (telephone interviews), the volume of the simple, stratified sample being 1100 people, representative of the significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over . The maximum allowed error of the data is ± 2.95%, at a confidence level of 95%.