The first Romanian general trained at Harvard answers a pressing question. What chance does Ukraine still have to beat Russia EXCLUSIVELY

Ukraine is in a difficult situation facing an enemy that has seemingly unlimited resources. This is how the optimism of 2022, when the Ukrainians achieved several victories over the Russians, has been replaced today by the blackest pessimism. General (r) Alexandru Grumaz explains, in an interview for “Adevărul”, what we can expect in the coming period.

When Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, almost all analysts predicted the imminent fall of Kiev. Only the Ukrainians rose from their own ashes and managed a surprising counter-offensive, which brought them a series of successes and rekindled the flame of hope. It’s just that 2023 and the first half of this year brought dramatic changes to the situation on the front, and with the fall of Bahmut and Avdiivkai, pessimism returned.

The first to admit that Ukraine has minimal chances was Valery Zalujnyi, the former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and for that he paid with his job. The other day, the deputy director of Ukrainian military intelligence, General Vadim Skibitskîi, shocked with a statement in “The Economist” in which he said that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield.

At a time when, beyond some statements, it seems that even Kiev no longer really believes in victory, “Adevărul” tried to find out to what extent Ukraine can still win this war, and for this reason it talked with Alexandru Grumaz, the first Romanian general trained in Washington.

All the stars aligned for Russia

“Under the current conditions, with a shortage of military personnel, Ukraine is trying to maintain the front line under attack by the Russians in several strategic points. Invaders gain ground in eastern Ukraine. Some front-line Ukrainian troops withdrew from positions north and northwest of the Russian-held town of Avdiivka in eastern Donetsk region. Russian forces have long aimed to seize four large cities that form a belt of fortresses in the Donetsk region, namely Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantinivka. The invasion and occupation of that belt would lead to the annexation of the entire Donetsk region“, the general explains the seriousness of the situation.

But standing in the way of the invaders is the city of Donetsk Chasiv, 80 kilometers from Avdiivka, a city of operational significance, as it would provide Russian forces with a training ground to launch offensive operations against Druzhkivka and Kostiantinivka.

Ukrainian troops are also seeing a build-up of Russian forces in the north around Kharkiv, although this could be a Russian effort to try to get the Ukrainians to bring in troops from other areas of the front, in the south and east. points out general Grumaz. He recalls that the ratio of forces, for example, in the Avdiivka area is 3 to 1 in favor of the Russians. On the list of needs of the Ukrainians to maintain the front are air defense systems and especially the Patriot system.

It is time for a more complex approach

“I say that in addition to stockpiling munitions and military equipment, there must be an ‘honest’ conversation between the allies and Ukraine to determine what victory might look like, along with what concessions and compromises might be necessary in any deal of peace or cease fire. The morale boost from the latest US “aid injection” means there is currently little appetite among Ukraine’s leadership to discuss a potential end to the war that does not involve total victory. It is clear that in Kiev, among politicians, there is a great sensitivity when discussing possible concessions”, says the general.

The choice of a moment for negotiations will depend primarily on the situation at the front. “However, it is less clear whether or not Ukraine can take back the territory that Russia has occupied. Russia’s ability to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively well-paid contract soldiers and increase weapons production has surprised the United States and its NATO allies“, adds the senior officer.

He also mentions a significant detail: Russia’s military is now 15 percent larger than before the invasion, the command has quickly adapted to innovative battlefield challenges, and Russia will produce more artillery this year than all 32 NATO members combined together, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of US European Command (SCEUR), said last month.

Is US aid coming in time?

When asked if the aid delayed by the US for months arrived on time, the general has no doubt “The timely delivery of ammunition and air defense equipment, for example, literally means stabilizing the military situation on the front line. Stoltenberg, who held talks with Zelenskiy during his third visit to Kiev, told Ukrainians that NATO members had not followed through on military aid promises in recent months, but that the flow of arms and ammunition would increase.

He also recalls that the head of NATO emphasized the US aid that was approved by Congress, but also an aid given by the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak regarding a commitment to supply military equipment and ammunition to Kiev “record”.

“The new US aid package will restore a critical flow of arms to Ukraine’s military, but the war will depend heavily on which side of the barricade can increase and maintain its firepower and troop numbers in the coming months. It must be said that in recent months, the discussion about the future development of Russia’s war against Ukraine and its potential endings has been dominated by the uncertainty surrounding the US aid package.he points out.

The general does not forget that speculation has been rife that Ukraine may soon be forced to negotiate with Russia at a time when there is clearly no political will in Moscow to negotiate. The adoption of the military package by the US Congress was met with palpable relief in Europe.

“The West is Back”

“The vote was widely hailed as proof that the West has turned around and that US commitment to Ukraine has not been captured by Donald Trump’s campaign. It is true that US military aid can be delivered faster than most European aid. Continued US military aid also sends a strong signal to Ukrainian soldiers and society at large – boosting morale at a time when fighting is particularly fierce and Russia is relentlessly targeting critical infrastructure in the city of Kharkiv and in the city of Odesa, maintaining, at the same time, the pressure in the Donbas region”, points out the general.

But it’s not just US aid that has been delayed. As the European elections approach, more and more unknowns appear in the equation on which the fate of Ukraine depends.

“We must also mention the fact that in addition to the deadlock in funding by the US, there were also the repeated vetoes of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who first blocked the opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and then the EU Facility for Ukraine, the package financial link linking reconstruction and accession. Let’s see if the new European Parliament will be more open to the support of Ukraine than the current one considering that the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will no longer be there either, the prognosis is almost certain, the structure of the Parliament will be different, and the European Commission will surely add a defense commissioner position, which will be constituted in a parallel structure to that of NATO, although smaller in size, but with great financial strength“, concludes General Alexandru Grumaz.