Putin’s dilemma: where to focus his future offensive in Ukraine. ISW: “The Russian command has a choice to make”

Russian troops have several tactical options for future offensives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future, according to the latest analysis by the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War.

ISW analysts say the stabilization of Russian positions northwest of Avdiivka gives the Russian command a choice: either continue to push west toward its declared operational objective at Pokrovsk; or to push north to carry out possible additional offensive operations around the town of Ceasiv Iar.

“Russian forces have secured additional marginal tactical gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka since April 29, but have not made significant progress in the direction of Avdiivka over the past 24 hours. Russian forces have a choice of several tactical directions for future offensive actions near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future,” the ISW analysis said.

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On Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that it had “liberated” a locality located northwest of Avdiivka, a fortress city in the Donetsk province. After losing this symbolic city, the Ukrainian army was forced to remain on the defensive, being in crisis of troops and ammunition.

Kiev now fears an intensification of Russian offensive actions in the coming weeks. On Sunday, the Russian army also claimed the occupation of a village also in the front sector in the Avdiivka area, the village of Novobahmutivka, located close to the village of Oceretîne, located on a high ground and which it largely controls, which provoked criticism of of the Ukrainian army among Ukrainian military bloggers.

Thus, the “DeepState” Telegram channel, close to the Ukrainian army and followed by more than 700,000 people, accused the command of the 115th Motorized Brigade for “the collapse of the defense in the entire region, causing considerable losses.”

Russian troops continue to advance towards the city of Ceasov Yar, the eventual conquest of which would allow them to threaten the Ukrainian redoubts of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key cities for controlling the entire Donetsk province.

The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Sîrski, admitted on Sunday that the situation on the front “deteriorated” and that Russian troops, more numerous and better equipped, achieved “tactical successes” in several areas.

According to General Sîrski, the Russian army “concentrated its efforts in several sectors, thus creating a significant advantage in terms of forces and means”, in order to “try to take the strategic initiative and break through the front line”.

Publisher: RK

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