How important Romania becomes for the USA through the new Black Sea strategy. Expert: “There will be major American investments”

Romania became more important for the US with the adoption, by the US Congress, of the strategy for the Black Sea. The expert in international relations George Vișan explains, in an analysis for “Adevărul”, what Romania’s vulnerability is and what solutions there are.

The US security strategy for the Black Sea favors Romania and provides strategic areas such as defense, economy and democratic resilience as directions of action. However, half a year after the US Congress passed a broader law that includes the strategy for this region, there are many details to be worked out.

Researcher at the Romanian Diplomatic Institute and member of the Jamestown Foundation title, from the USA, George Vișan talks about the importance of this act, but also about a certain vulnerability in the south of NATO’s eastern flank.

Where NATO’s eastern flank is vulnerable

“We currently have, through the US Congress, a document of political and juridical value that supports the American presence in this region and that practically helps implement American policy in the region. It’s no longer just a matter of contingency, it’s simply part of American foreign policy”says Vișan.

In his opinion, a large part of this strategy is due to Romanian diplomacy, which managed to explain to Washington the importance of the Black Sea and why such a strategy is needed from the US. However, there are still important details, but also an essential problem to solve on NATO’s eastern flank. Thus, if in the northern part of the flank, the Baltic Sea has become a large NATO, and the American troops present here are more numerous, things are a little different in the southern flank, where Romania is located.

George Visan. PHOTO: GV personal archive

“At the moment there is a somewhat unnatural differentiation towards the two ends of the eastern flank. In the Baltic Sea area we have what is called enhanced forward presence compared to the Black Sea area, where we have a smaller presence. Practically, in the Baltic Sea, from a strategic point of view, the movements of the Russian Federation are constrained at the moment despite some rather important deployments of forces on the part of the Kremlin. Not in the Black Sea“, he explains.

Things are quite different in the Black Sea, where Russia and Turkey share their influence.

“In the Black Sea, however, the situation is one of war, because the Russian-Ukrainian war is being fought in this area. Indeed, the US and its European allies have increased their presence in Romania and we have the deployment of additional US forces, we have a major battle group led by France and the prospect of its development to brigade level. But there must be a change of treatment on the eastern flank, for there is the risk of an alliance solar plexus developing here“, emphasizes Vișan.

In addition, there is another problem in the Black Sea area, the Danube one. “In the case of Romania, we have not only the Black Sea region, we also have the Danube, which is very important there in the equation of supporting Ukraine. I personally don’t think that Romania or any other country will be attacked by Russia, but as long as we have a war in the proximity of the border we have to consider the worst scenarios. The Danube is part of the Black Sea area. The Black Sea cannot be considered without the Danube, which is the second longest and most strategically important river in Europe after the Rhine. Basically, through the Danube, a number of states from central and eastern Europe have access to the Black Sea. And that is why there is a need for a high presence of the Alliance in the area and a constant vigilance of NATO troops”points out the expert.

What areas of investment are Americans targeting?

However, there is also countless good news, and the adoption of the law in the USA is a reason for optimism for Romania. George Vișan believes that in the next period we will have an increased presence of American troops in the region, but even more than that.

“In the near future we could see a greater American military presence. On the other hand, the Black Sea Security Act is not only about a military presence. Security also has economic and social aspects. That act opens up the possibility of cooperation in the energy field, for example, through SMRs and through investments at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant. Part of the investments from Cernavodă will be provided by the USA. And there will be investments in green energy. There will also be US investment in the defense industry as well. There is a certain interest on the part of the American side in all that is munitions production and armaments production. At the moment it would be an economic opportunity in extremely sensitive energy and military areas and maybe in other areas, IT software and hardwaree”, concludes George Vișan.

*The positions expressed by George Vișan do not commit the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in any way.