A recent change in Russia’s rhetoric could be aimed at justifying a “future Russian aggression throughout Moldova”

The change in the rhetoric of the Kremlin, which now declares that it is concerned about the “persecution” of Moldovan speakers in the Republic of Moldova, and not only of Russian speakers, could be aimed at justifying a “future Russian aggression throughout Moldova”, it is said in the analysis of the prestigious Institute for the Study of War dedicated to the events of May 9.

“The two pro-Russian regions of Moldova, the autonomous region of Gagauzia and the separatist republic of Transnistria, are home to large Russian-speaking populations, and the Kremlin’s shift from accusations of persecution of Russian speakers to persecution of Moldovan speakers indicates that the Kremlin is trying likely to justify a future Russian aggression in all of Moldova”, according to the cited source.

ISW’s analysis began with the statement of Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) spokeswoman Maria Zaharova, who claimed that the Moldovan government was involved in a Nazi-style “genocide” in Moldova – a notable inflection in the rhetoric of officials from Kremlin regarding Moldova, which is probably intended to create the conditions for a Russian effort to ensure control over Moldova and not just over some of its regions, the think-tank emphasizes.

Zaharova gave a Victory Day interview to the Kremlin’s TASS news agency in which she absurdly claimed that Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her administration were engaging in “eugenics” practices comparable to those of the Nazi Third Reich . Zaharova focused a lot on the policies of the Moldovan government towards the Moldovan language, claiming that the Sandu government is replacing the Moldovan language with the Romanian language and that this constitutes “elements of genocide against an entire people”.

Zaharova claimed that the Moldovan language, culture and identity will continue to exist after Maia Sandu leaves office and that the current head of state will leave “a dark stain in the history of Moldova”, suggesting that the Kremlin expects her to come to power in the future a new administration that will no longer be as Western-oriented as the current government. Zaharova did not specifically attack the Sandu government for its policies toward Russian-speakers in Moldova, as other Russian and pro-Kremlin officials in Moldova have done recently, focusing instead on the Moldovan language. The Kremlin has repeatedly invoked the self-proclaimed need to protect Russia’s “compatriots,” especially Russian speakers who allegedly face discrimination, to justify Russian aggression abroad, including in Ukraine and Moldova.

However, Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have recently promoted the narrative that Russia is in an existential geopolitical conflict with an alleged modern-day Nazi movement that is prolific in the West. ISW has previously assessed that many people may not identify with the Kremlin’s narratives about “Russian compatriots abroad” and that the Kremlin may have decided that claims of Western “neo-Nazism” might be more effective for a wider audience.

Leaders of the pro-Kremlin opposition electoral bloc “Victory of Moldova” participated in the Victory Day parade in Moscow yesterday, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize the whole of Moldova and attack democracy and the process of Moldova’s accession to the EU, says ISW. The US-sanctioned Moldovan politician Ilan Sor, the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, and the US-sanctioned Moldovan MP Marina Tauber, a close associate of Sor, attended Victory Day on May 9 in Moscow, apparently at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Şor, Guțul and Tauber are the main leaders of the recently created Moldovan electoral bloc Victoria, which will apparently present a candidate in the October 2024 Moldovan presidential elections.

The participation of Șor, Guțul and Tauber in the Victory Day parade is a notable public demonstration of the importance of these three Moldovan actors – and therefore the electoral bloc Victoria – for the Kremlin’s efforts in Moldova, the think tank emphasizes .

Although Guțul has met personally with Putin and other Kremlin officials recently, and bilateral ties between Russia and Gagauzia have grown considerably in recent months, the inclusion of Shor and Tauber in the Moscow festivities further indicates that the Kremlin’s efforts in Moldova it is not limited to Gagauzia.

“ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is involved in efforts to destabilize all of Moldova and prevent Moldova’s accession to the EU and likely seeks to exploit Gagauzia and Transnistria’s ties to the Kremlin and opposition to the Moldovan federal authorities as part of these broader efforts,” the Institute for the Study of War analysis said.

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