Analysis by FRANCE 24 and picked up by Rador Radio Romania:
Sabotage, arson & Co. Several European intelligence agencies are warning of the growing threat of violent actions by Russian intelligence services on European soil and in NATO countries, the Financial Times said.
“We assess that the risk of state-directed acts of sabotage [rus, n. red.] has grown significantly,” Thomas Haldenwang, president of the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (domestic intelligence), pointed out during a security conference in Germany in April.
An observation shared by intelligence agencies “in three countries. NATO security services have put “clear and convincing information about Russian shenanigans” on the table, a European political official who preferred to remain anonymous told the British daily.
The accusations were described as “groundless” and “frivolous” by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday, May 6.
But these warnings are fueled by a series of suspicious incidents that have occurred across Europe… and even beyond. Russian intelligence services are actually suspected of being behind a March 21 fire at a London warehouse belonging to a Ukrainian businessman. A month later, on April 15, an explosion also occurred in the United Kingdom at a factory of the British defense giant BAE, where weapons for Ukraine were being manufactured.
A few days after this incident, Polish police forces arrested people suspected of collecting information from Rzeszów airport for the benefit of Russia. On the same day, two German-Russian citizens were arrested and accused of preparing sabotage operations on German soil.
Russian spies were even suspected of setting fire to a US munitions factory in mid-April.
“We are probably witnessing an acceleration of a trend that began more than a year ago, which consists of increasing clandestine actions on the territory of NATO countries,” estimates Jenny Mathers, a specialist in Russian intelligence services at Aberystwyth University. In April, Czech authorities warned that Russian agents had been trying since spring 2023 to sabotage the European rail network. They even counted more than 1,000 hacking attempts targeting infrastructure critical to the delivery of Western equipment to Ukraine.
The recent escalation comes as “Russian rhetoric increasingly insists that there is a war against the West and that Moscow needs to defend itself,” points out Kevin Riehle, an intelligence specialist at Brunel University in London. Russian President Vladimir Putin designated NATO military bases in Europe as “legitimate targets” in the ongoing war in Ukraine in a speech on March 28.
The more Russia perceives that the West is supporting Ukraine militarily and putting pressure on it, “the more we should expect to see Moscow react,” notes Mark Galeotti, director of consulting firm Mayak Intelligence and author of “The War of Putin: from Chechnya to Ukraine”.
For this specialist in security issues in Russia, it is not surprising that the intensification of Russian clandestine operations is taking place “while there are more Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. For Moscow, Kiev is just a pawn in the hands of NATO, which means that Russian officials hold the West directly responsible for these attacks in Russia. Carrying out violent operations then becomes much more legitimate for them.
Russian intelligence services believe that the moment is, moreover, particularly well chosen to put more pressure on European countries. The example of the parliamentary debate in the United States on the advisability of sending more and more weapons to Ukraine proved “that there is beginning to be a certain fatigue on the part of the population towards supporting Ukraine.”
Striking on European soil is a reminder that “there is a security price to pay for this support, which could further embolden skeptics in their fears,” says Daniel Lomas, an intelligence specialist at the University of Nottingham who is currently working on Russia’s exploitation of espionage since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Fueling divisions within Western opinion in this way serves Russia’s interests perfectly. Especially since his army is currently trying to break through Ukrainian defenses. “If the intelligence services can slow down the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, especially by making European countries doubt the opportunity to do so, it would also be a strategic success for military operations,” estimates Jenny Mathers.
“There is the psychological impact, but also the material one,” adds this specialist. Most of the targets of acts or attempted sabotage attributed to Russian spies are either munitions depots intended for the Ukrainian military, or infrastructure in the supply and delivery chain of this equipment (railway network or airport).
“The number 1 priority of the Russian agencies is really to disrupt the shipment of equipment to Ukraine,” insists Daniel Lomas. Which demonstrates “real coordination between the military and the intelligence services,” points out Jenny Mathers. An understanding between the services that was far from being achieved, according to her, knowing the constant infighting between the offices and within the various ministries in Russia.
The Russian spies therefore went into action. And European agencies seem to think they are ready to strike hard. They would be “apparently unconcerned about civilian casualties, according to intelligence officials” interviewed by the “Financial Times”.
Which suggests that future operations would become more violent and murderous? An assumption that leaves the experts interviewed by France 24 in doubt. On the one hand, even if it is not the only one doing it, the GRU (military intelligence) “is officially responsible for reducing the ability of Russia’s enemies to wage war,” points out Kevin Riehle. And these spies are not known to be bothered by collateral victims. “In 2018, the attempted poisoning of [fostului agent dublu] Sergei Skripal in England led to the death of a civilian who was accidentally exposed to Novichok left at the scene,” recalls Daniel Lomas.
But the Russian authorities “still have a sense of the limits that must not be crossed. And for now, they want to prevent their clandestine operations from resulting in deaths. All these actions remain below the threshold of escalation of tensions”, estimates Mark Galeotti. In his opinion, “Russian officials can talk about war with the West, but they certainly don’t want an open conflict.”
“Using intelligence services is currently the only way Russia can operate in Europe without leading to a military response from NATO,” confirms Daniel Lomas.
This is why the removal, at the beginning of the war, of hundreds of members of the Russian embassies in Europe – most of them accused of being spies – dealt such a severe blow to Russia. The fact that Moscow seems capable of multiplying clandestine operations in Europe “indicates that the intelligence services have partially reconstructed their network,” assures Kevin Riehle.
But for now, it’s a fire here, an attempt to sabotage the railroad over there, or dual nationals who are arrested before they can carry out their plan. In other words, the European GRU network is probably still fragile. And this is surely the meaning of the warnings of the European intelligence services: perhaps there is still time to prevent Europe from becoming again a nest of Russian spies capable of permanently disrupting the logistical supply chain for Ukraine.
