The closer NATO gets to Ukraine, the more Putin will wave nuclear weapons and the greater the risk that he will use them, says Christopher S. Chivvis, former US national intelligence officer for Europe in 2018 -2021, in The Guardian.
Russia’s nuclear weapons. PHOTO Shutterstock
The world must reject Russia’s nuclear posture, but it must not ignore the danger, says Chivvis, who currently heads the program on American Statecraft at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
According to him, leaders in France and Britain have stepped up their pledges to Ukraine in recent days, frustrated by the poor state of Ukraine’s war effort and long delays in US aid.
Macron repeated in an interview last week that he might send ground forces to bolster the besieged Ukrainian defenses. In Kiev, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron gave Ukraine the green light to strike into Russian territory, signaling clearly that Britain wants a more aggressive approach to the war.
Their frustration is understandable, as is the temptation to get more directly involved in the war, with more powerful weapons and more guarantees of long-term support for Ukraine, adds Chivvis, who says, however, that the closer NATO gets the more Ukraine, the more Russia will wave its nuclear weapons and the more likely it will use them.
In response to Macron and Cameron’s remarks last week, the Kremlin on Monday issued an angry statement full of accusations against the West, announcing that Russia would soon conduct a tactical nuclear weapons exercise near Ukraine, which, says Chivvis, underlines once again that Vladimir Putin considers these weapons to be fair game in this war.
What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon
According to him, if Russia were to use any nuclear weapon, even with a fraction of the destructive power of a strategic warhead, it would destroy a portion of Ukrainian land, rendering it uninhabitable for decades.
At the same time, it would risk a much more destructive conflagration. And after breaking the nearly 80-year taboo on the use of nuclear weapons by attacking Ukraine with them, Russia would have much less reason to hold back.
Joe Biden would, in such a context, face pressure to use his own US nuclear weapons in response, if only to demonstrate that he has the courage to do so. It’s also why he said that if Russia were to use a nuclear weapon, it would go off “Armageddon”.
NATO has rightly condemned Russia’s nuclear stance as irresponsible, and even China has expressed concern in the past.
But Putin is a leader accustomed to breaking the rules and taking Western nations by surprise, so no one can know exactly when a reckless autocrat like the Russian president might decide the time is right to teach the West a lesson with a tactical nuclear strike. , says the former US National Intelligence Officer.
Russia’s threshold to use a nuclear weapon is high
Internal Russian documents, as well as the Kremlin’s latest statement, suggest that Russia’s threshold for using a nuclear weapon is quite high.
The fact that Putin’s threats are irresponsible does not mean that the West can ignore them nonchalantly, Christopher S. Chivvis says, according to The Guardian, adding that Western leaders must be alert to the risks and cautious in their approach and think about how to that open up alternative paths to peace – paths that do not rely solely on military means and in which negotiation can play a greater role in Western strategy.
