Since becoming prime minister in August 1999, then acting president on the last day of the same year, Putin has transformed Russia into a monolith, crushing the opposition, eliminating the independent press and positioning himself politically as a “defender of values traditional”.
His influence became so great in Russia that other officials in Moscow could only stand on the sidelines when the war against Ukraine was launched despite the fact that the invasion was expected to bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, such as and a high human price even for the aggressor.
With such a level of power, “what will Putin do in his next term” is a daunting question both in Russia and abroad, AP notes.
The Ukrainian issue
The war in Ukraine – where the Kremlin claims its armed forces are making progress on the battlefield, although no consistent advances are being seen – is the main concern, and Putin shows no signs of changing course.
“The war in Ukraine is central to his current political project and I see nothing to suggest that this will change. And this affects all areas”, Brian Taylor, professor at Syracuse University and author of the book “Putinism Code”, explains to AP. According to him, the war has a negative impact on Russian institutions, resources and economy. In addition, it aggravates internal repression.
In his State of the Nation address in February, Putin promised to fulfill his goals in Ukraine. He claimed that the Russian army has “gained extensive combat experience” and that it “firmly holds the initiative” on the battlefield in the neighboring country.
The Kremlin leader will continue the war with huge spending, including money that should be allocated to education, social assistance and the fight against poverty. While Vladimir Putin promises to make improvements in these areas, Brian Taylor believes he is not being sincere. Their inclusion in the February speech was for show, says the Syracuse University professor.
Putin “thinks of himself” according to the ideology of “the greatness of the Russian lands”. In this sense, the Kremlin leader believes that Ukraine must be “returned to where it belongs”. “And I think that they prevail over any kind of socio-economic programs,” argues Professor Brian Taylor.
Another war in Europe?
If the war in Ukraine ends with Russia keeping some of the territories it has already occupied, Putin could be encouraged towards a new military adventure, perhaps in the Baltic countries or in Poland, European states estimate.
“It is possible that Putin has vast ambitions and will try to achieve a costly success in Ukraine with a new attack elsewhere,” writes Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard, in Foreign Policy magazine. “But it’s also quite possible that his ambitions don’t extend beyond what Russia has won — at enormous cost — and he doesn’t need or want to go any higher,” Walt continues. The Harvard professor believes that “Russia will not be able to launch new wars of aggression once the one in Ukraine is over.”
Such a rational concern may not have merit in Putin’s thinking, other analysts say. “Driven by Putin’s whims and illusions, Moscow is likely to commit self-destructive errors,” commented Maksim Samorukov, an expert at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, in an article published in Foreign Affairs.
According to Samorukov, Putin’s judgment could be adversely affected by advancing age. “At 71 years old (72 in October – no), the awareness of his own death definitely leaves its mark on decision-making. A growing sense of his time running out undoubtedly contributed to the fateful decision to invade Ukraine,” the Carnegie Center analyst believes.
Doubts over Putin’s real power
Moreover, Putin may head into his new term with a weaker grip on power than he appears to have. “Russia’s vulnerabilities are hidden in plain sight. Now, more than ever, the Kremlin makes decisions in a personalized and arbitrary way, without any basic control,” says Samorukov.
“The Russian political elite has become more flexible in implementing Putin’s orders and more subservient to his paranoid worldview,” he continues. However, the regime in Moscow “permanently risks collapsing overnight, as happened to its Soviet predecessor three decades ago.”
Putin is sure to continue his animosity toward the West, which he accuses of trying to “weaken Russia from within” and criticizes for supporting Ukraine. The Kremlin leader is expected to continue to position himself as a “defender of traditional values” in collaboration with the Russian Orthodox Church.
“I expect the role of the Russian Orthodox Church to continue to be quite visible” in Russia, Taylor says.
Although opposition and independent media have all but disappeared due to Putin’s crackdown, there is still potential for new moves to control Russia’s information space, including establishing a “sovereign internet.”
Putin’s inauguration comes two days before May 9, when Russians are called annually to celebrate the Red Army’s entry into Berlin toward the end of World War II. 79 years after the surrender of Nazi Germany, which is part of modern Russia’s identity, Putin claims to be waging a similar war against Ukraine.
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Tags: Putins investiture Russia Enters Era Authoritarianism Consequences
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