Russia is planning violent acts of sabotage across Europe, intelligence services warn / An essential strategic shift

European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is planning violent acts of sabotage across the continent, writes the Financial Times.

Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and destruction of infrastructure on European territory, directly and through intermediaries, without much apparent concern for possible civilian casualties, intelligence officials believe, notes the Financial Times, according to News.ro.

“We assess that the risk of acts of state-controlled sabotage has increased significantly”

While Kremlin operatives have a long history of such operations — and have launched sporadic attacks in Europe in recent years — evidence of more aggressive and effective actions is mounting.

Intelligence officials are becoming increasingly vocal about this threat.

“We estimate that the risk of acts of state-controlled sabotage has increased significantly,” said Thomas Haldenwang, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service.

Russia now seems comfortable conducting operations on European soil “with a high potential for damage,” he said last month at a security conference hosted by his agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Haldenwang spoke just days after two German-Russian nationals were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia.

At the end of April, two men were accused in the UK of causing a fire at a warehouse containing aid packages for Ukraine. British prosecutors accuse them of working for the Russian government.

In Sweden, security services are meanwhile investigating a series of recent rail derailments, which they suspect may be acts of state-sponsored sabotage. Russia tried to destroy the signaling systems of the Czech railways, the country’s transport minister told the Financial Times last month.

In Estonia, an attack on the interior minister’s car in February and those on journalists in Esto were carried out by Russian intelligence agents, the country’s Internal Security Service reported. The French Defense Ministry also warned this year of possible Russian sabotage attacks on military sites.

“The obvious conclusion is that there has been a real intensification of Russian activity”

“The obvious conclusion is that there has been a real intensification of Russian activity,” said Keir Giles, a senior consultant at the Chatham House think tank.

“Whether this reflects the fact that the Russians are investing more resources in this activity, whether they are more sloppy and getting caught, or whether Western counterintelligence services have simply become better at detecting and stopping them is impossible to say. Whatever it is, a lot of things are happening,” he added.

A senior European government official said that NATO security services are sharing information about “clear and convincing Russian malicious actions” that have been coordinated and on a large scale.

“The time has come to raise awareness and focus on the threat of Russian violence on European soil,” he added.

NATO issued a statement on Thursday saying it was “deeply concerned” about Russia’s “increasing malign activities on allied territory”, citing what it said was an “intensifying campaign in the Euro- Atlantic”. Growing fears of Russia’s appetite for physical damage against its adversaries follow a wave of accusations against Moscow of disinformation and hacking.

Full line pressure

On Friday, Germany promised consequences for Moscow – in a statement backed by the EU and NATO – over a 2023 cyber attack on Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party. Meanwhile, a scandal exposing Russia’s attempts to co-opt far-right European politicians ahead of the upcoming European elections is still unfolding.

An intelligence official said Moscow’s sabotage efforts should not be seen as separate from other operations, saying the increased activity reflected Russia’s goal of exerting maximum pressure “across the board.”

Putin currently feels “emboldened” and will try to push the lines as hard as possible in Europe, on several fronts, whether through disinformation, sabotage or hacking. The increased aggressiveness of the Russian secret services also reflects the desire of spies in this country to reassert themselves after the worst failure suffered since the collapse of the Soviet Union, says the Financial Times, quoted by News.ro.

In the weeks following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence officers operating in Europe under diplomatic cover were expelled, causing serious damage to the Kremlin’s spy network across the continent.

“There’s always a combination of things going on”

In a recent report, analysts from the Royal United Services Institute in Great Britain highlighted the efforts that Russia has made to rebuild its presence in Europe.

There has also been a key strategic shift, with so-called “special influence committees” coordinating country-by-country intelligence operations for the Kremlin, bringing together what were previously fragmented efforts by the country’s security services and other security actors. at the Kremlin.

As Russia’s operations have intensified, security services have been on high alert for threats and are looking to identify targets they may have missed.

Questions have been raised, for example, about a hitherto unexplained explosion at a BAE Systems munitions factory in Wales that supplies shells used by Ukraine. In October 2014, a Czech weapons depot where weapons for Kiev were stored was destroyed. Later, it turned out that Russian military intelligence agents had planted explosives in that place.

A huge fire broke out on Friday at a factory in Berlin owned by the Diehl arms company, which also supplies Ukraine. More than 160 firefighters were called to tackle the blaze, and residents in much of the western part of the capital were asked to keep their windows closed because of possible toxic fumes.

“As always with Russia, it is wise not to look for a single explanation for why it does something. There is always a combination of things happening. These pinprick attacks that we have seen so far are, of course, to create disruption, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there is the matter of what Russia learns from these attacks if it really wants to immobilize Europe… . They are training exercises,” added Keir Giles, senior consultant at the Chatham House think tank.