major risk of war in the Eastern Carpathians

As two regional wars, in Ukraine and the Middle East, threaten world peace, the Americans and Europeans are rushing to “armor” the Balkans to prevent a new outbreak of unrest in Europe, informs Kathimerini.

Rising tensions in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, political instability in North Macedonia and Bulgaria, and Russia’s so far veiled threats to Moldova are raising concerns in the West about developments that, instigated by “malign influences,” could “ignite ” a third war in the Balkans.

The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine causes, according to international analysts, fears that in the event of a victory, Putin will head towards Moldova, and if he feels that the “special military operation” is stagnating, he will not hesitate to incite ethnic and related conflicts in the Balkans of borders for the purpose of distraction.

Hence the Western rush to extend a safety net in the most vulnerable areas, from Kosovo and Bosnia to the banks of the Vardar River in North Macedonia and to the Carpathians in the east.

In this climate, in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Senate, Democrats and Republicans approved a few days ago a bill to “strengthen American involvement in the Western Balkans.” The bill urges the US and its European allies to strengthen relations with Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia in response to Russian influence and particularly their dependence on Russian natural gas, noting that “ it is in the common interest of the United States and the countries of the Western Balkans.”

Special mention is made of the two “time bombs” of the Balkans, as Bosnia and Kosovo are considered, where violations of the Dayton Treaty (in the case of Bosnia) and ongoing conflicts between Serbs and Albanians (in the case of Kosovo) appear as destabilizing factors. In addition, Kosovo is seen as a key country for Serbia’s stability.

Disinformation in the Balkans

The draft law also points to the disinformation campaigns carried out in the Western Balkans, campaigns which, as it states, “aim to weaken democratic institutions”. In addition to warnings about Russia’s influence, the US bill also draws attention to China’s “growing influence”, warning that it could have a “damaging impact on strategic competition, democracy and economic integration with Europe”.

Testifying before the Senate Defense Committee, the commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, said NATO was in the process of sending additional military forces and heavy weaponry to the peacekeeping mission in Kosovo and accused Russia that it incites “inter-ethnic tensions”, claiming that Serbia is suspected of involvement in these “influence operations” in the region.

American reserve admiral John Stavridis, former supreme commander of NATO’s allied forces in Europe, presents, in an article (Bloomberg Opinion), much more broadly Putin’s plans and warns: “If he emerges victorious (in Ukraine) it would be logical to turn his attention to Moldova, the next stop on his way to Southeast Europe – where a pro-Russian separatist enclave, Transnistria, is already under Russian occupation. But there is still another very attractive target nearby, the Western Balkans. The Kremlin’s attention is directed towards Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, an already ethnically divided country”.

With extensive experience in European affairs, the American admiral rhetorically raises the question: how can the Kremlin undermine stability in this strategically important area of ​​Europe, that is, in Kosovo and Bosnia, and claims that: “Putin is clearly encouraging Serbia to put pressure on the NATO-backed government of Kosovo. Last year, the Serbian army was put on high alert following tensions between Serb protesters inside Kosovo, a state neither Serbia nor Russia recognize, in which nearly a hundred NATO soldiers were injured. This forced the Alliance to send several hundred additional troops to reinforce the peacekeeping forces there. Russia is also working to destabilize Bosnia-Herzegovina’s already unstable government, which is divided into a strange tripartite presidency, with a representative for each of the country’s three major ethno-religious communities (Bosnian Muslims, Bosnian Serbs, Bosnian Croats ). The most experienced politician there is Serbian leader Milorad Dodik, who is closely tied to Moscow. As early as a decade ago, he was talking to me about the need to separate Republika Srpska, which would essentially destroy this country. That entity would then inevitably unite with Serbia, creating a state of Greater Serbia, which Putin would happily support,” writes Stavridis.

Given that the current situation in the unstable Balkans is seen this way across the Atlantic, those who (should) be most concerned with protecting their “backyard” are the Europeans, who have largely abandoned this region, despite the promises of integration of all countries in the EU, leaving it defenseless against the influence of the other powerful players, especially Russia.

The fact that the European leaders recently granted Bosnia-Herzegovina the status of a candidate country for EU accession, in a hurry and without it actually fulfilling even one of the stipulated criteria, can only be explained in the light of the above. So is the strengthening and optimization of the German military force in Sarajevo. Bosnia is a state without cohesion, which will immediately collapse if the Serbian entity decides, as its Russophile leader proclaims, to secede, either to be annexed to Belgrade, or to remain “autonomous” and form, after as desired in one of the circulated scenarios, with the addition of Serbs from northern Kosovo, a “federation” of the “Serbian World” (according to the Russian model), thus triggering an avalanche in the Balkans that could continue, as a counter-reaction, with a unification of the Albanians of Kosovo, Tetovo, Presevo and Montenegro with the motherland, forming their own “Albanian federation”. With the risk of appearing, in this case, de facto or even de jure, a Greater Albania and a Greater Serbia, which would change the map of the existing borders and the balance of power in the Balkans, something that will not be accepted by any of the other parties interested, including Greece and Turkey.

Normalization of relations

At the other end of the “hot axis”, the situation in Kosovo risks getting out of control at the slightest spark, given that the dialogue on the normalization of Serbian-Albanian relations does not register progress, and the two sides in conflict are arming themselves giving the impression that they are preparing for an armed confrontation, with the risk that, should such a confrontation occur, it would lead to the involvement of Serbia on the part of its compatriots in Mitrovica and the multinational military force KFOR on the part of the Albanians, as and with the risk that Russia will take the opportunity to intervene militarily on the Balkan front.

The proposal for Kosovo’s accession to the Council of Europe is considered, in the current context, as part of the European efforts to stabilize the situation there. But rather it worsened the relations between Belgrade and Pristina and now diplomatically steps are being taken so that at the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Council of Europe, where the final decision will be made, the Albanians will exchange the creation of the “Union of Serbian Municipalities”, agreed in Ohrid, a union they have so far avoided putting into practice for fear of establishing a Serbian state within Kosovo, which could act as a “Trojan horse” of Serbian nationalism.

North Macedonia and Bulgaria are also sources of intense concern

Western concerns are not limited to Kosovo and Bosnia, even if these are the most dangerous hotbeds of tension. Each corner of the Balkans has its own “Achilles’ heel”, which can create challenges for peacekeeping.

In North Macedonia, the looming rise of the nationalist VMRO DPMNE party, which included in their program the annulment of the Prespa Agreement with Greece and the Friendship Pact with Bulgaria, mobilized Washington and Brussels. The representative of the State Department openly sent the message to Skopje that none of the agreements can be abrogated or undermined, as they are pillars of the map of the Balkan borders, something that officials in Brussels have made equally clear to the aspiring forces power from Skopje.

Prolonged political instability and the strong pro-Russian disposition existing in a significant part of the population in Bulgaria – a NATO bastion country on the Black Sea -, but also the break in Greek-Albanian relations and the underground circulation of Russian propaganda in the Balkans through Church channels reinforce concerns with regarding the cohesion of the region in the perspective of possible unfavorable developments. The German magazine Spiegel emphasizes Germany’s fears of instrumentalizing Putin’s influence in the Balkans, as well as the need to “close open chapters related to borders.” Although the corruption of the political elites (as shown by the bill passed by the US Congress) is considered a factor eroding the stability of the Western Balkans, both the Americans and the Europeans keep away from any form of sanction the two leaders that the societies of the countries they accuse them of – even if they are not directly involved – benefiting in any case at a political and personal level from corruption. It is Edi Rama from Tirana and Aleksandar Vucic from Belgrade, considered the “spoiled children” of the West, despite all their geopolitical pirouettes, although the Albanian prime minister is swayed by Erdogan’s alluring charm and the Serbian president wants to play two ends, the European and the Russian, and relax according to circumstances into Putin’s geopolitical embrace.

Why does this happen? Because these two leaders are the ones who can control the Albanian factor and the Serbian factor in the Balkans and keep their historical and hateful rift dormant, a dormant state on which peace in the Balkans totally depends.

The role of both is considered decisive in the solution of the Kosovo issue – and Vucic’s also with regard to Bosnia – which is why the West wants to have them close, even if they are often dissatisfied themselves or displease their allies due to arrogance these leaders (see Rama’s position in the case of the conviction of the mayor of Greek origin Fredi Beleri).

Finally, is there a unified strategy being implemented to strengthen the Balkans in the face of possible Russian involvement? In addition to the shield of institutional and economic protection that they are trying to erect from the Adriatic Sea to the Carpathians, Washington and Brussels are also strengthening their military presence.

In Romania, the West is continuously increasing the personnel and armament of the NATO military base there, the largest in Europe, in view of developments in Moldova. It also turns Albania into a military gateway to the Balkans and provides Vucic with Rafale aircraft, which the Albanians also desperately want, while also arming Kosovo, where the British also send Javelin anti-tank missiles, angering Belgrade.

According to Stavridis, “fortunately” the West has options. “While for now the idea of ​​deploying NATO forces to Ukraine is unlikely, increasing the level of troops deployed in Kosovo today and preventing the unrest that Putin is trying to foment is feasible and certainly makes strategic sense.” Greece, however, seems to be far from all this mobilization, limiting itself to arguments with Rama and Vucic and repeating that it will be the “locomotive” that will take the Western Balkans to the EU, if it does not derail due to developments.

Source: Kathimerini, translated by Rador Radio Romania