- Paris could deploy 20,000 soldiers in 30 days, assures General P. Schill.
- Scenario no. 1: France would set up arms factories in Ukraine.
- Scenario no. 2: Soldiers train and operate certain equipment.
- Scenario no. 3: France deploys soldiers to ensure the security of Odessa.
- Scenario no. 4: France would deploy troops to help Ukrainian soldiers.
- Scenario no. 5: French troops fight the Russian army alongside the Ukrainians.
“Our duty is to prepare for all scenarios,” says Emmanuel Macron. “Nothing should be ruled out” when talking about the war in Ukraine. For now, only 10 states
Europeans follow the French president in this hypothesis, but in Paris they are already working on 5 possible scenarios.
It seems more and more likely that one way or another we will collide with Russia. All the major states have the duty to make scenarios, the French even more so. How real is the existence of these scenarios?
These scenarios exist and it would be foolish not to do them, says Macron. If troops were to be sent, the President of the Republic, as head of the Armed Forces, can give the order and only has to inform Parliament “at the latest three days after the start of the intervention”. Emmanuel Macron would therefore have constitutional legitimacy for such a device
Paris could deploy 20,000 soldiers in 30 days, assures the Chief of Staff of the Army, General Pierre Schill. The scenarios published by LE Figaro are fictitious but plausible. They are based on precedents or ministerial statements.
What do these scenarios say and how far can France’s involvement go?
Scenario no. 1: France establishes factories in Ukraine
In this first scenario, France would establish weapons factories, both for production and for operational maintenance, in Ukraine. Both the British, the Germans and the French have already signed contracts in this regard.
Scenario No. 2: Soldiers demining, training and using certain equipment
Minister Sebastien Lecornu evoked a French presence in Ukraine that cannot be qualified as co-belligerency: removing mines, training Ukrainian soldiers on their own land”. The army has already trained 10,000 Ukrainians in France.
And if the equipment already delivered needs technical assistance, it is likely that the trainers will already be on site”.
Scenario 3: Protecting Odessa
“Anyway, next year I will have to send boys to Odessa,” Emmanuel Macron is said to have said, according to Le Monde. The head of state fears an increase in grain prices and an extension of the conflict to Moldova in the event of the fall of Odessa. The ports of Odessa allow the export of grain, essential to avoid a global famine.
In this scenario, the French military would deploy soldiers to provide ground and air security for Odessa. France could “deploy an anti-aircraft presence, such as the Mamba system”.
Scenario no. 4: The French army creates a protection zone
France would deploy troops to help Ukrainian soldiers. “We can imagine that they would go to the liberated areas, such as the border with Belarus, Kherson or Kharkiv. This would send a signal to the Russians to discourage them from going forward. It could also protect civilian areas, regularly targeted by the Russian military,” explains Nicolas Tenzer, professor at Sciences Po Paris.
Scenario no. 5: Confrontation in the trenches
This most unlikely scenario would see French troops fighting the Russian army alongside the Ukrainians.
“The political cost would be significant. The president would be politically obliged to ask for a parliamentary vote.
France, should she engage in such an operation, would therefore have to find support from her allies. For now, there are only 10. It is envisaged, however, only in case of the collapse of the Ukrainian front.
Read also
