After a moment when it seems that the minimum bearable level for farmers has been reached in terms of grain and oilseed prices, quotations have started to rise on the stock exchanges and in the physical market. There are still prospects for growth in canola, especially for farmers who can stockpile the commodity they will harvest this season.
Farmers are hoping for a price level reaching 2.5 lei/kg over the coming months, given that production prospects in Europe and Australia are not the best.
In the “Agricultura la Raport” show, Cezar Gheorghe, an expert in agricultural commodity markets, made an x-ray of this year’s rapeseed market.
“Rapeseed has potential, but we have to understand one thing. In Romania we have a problem with this premium, which today is quoted at the processing units at minus 20-25 euros compared to what Euronext positions for the August 2024 quotation.
Europe will have a problem with canola, a maximum of 18 million tons will be harvested. Canada is looking very good for the upcoming crop, they’ve had a blast there because they’ve generated higher canola stocks and they’ve got an extra million tonnes. The key lies in Australia, because the Australian crop is positioned at 5.7 million tonnes, but with the drought, there is no telling how it will turn out. They forecast that they will sow less by 4-22% compared to the previous season”, stated Cezar Gheorghe.
According to the specialist, the best rapeseed prices will be recorded after the summer period, starting from October, but many farmers will have to sell during the harvest period, in order to ensure the flow of money they need to purchase inputs .
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“I think that rape still has a comfort zone, a pressure zone, and it will also go through a carry season, that is, for those who did not sell or who do not sell in the following period or during the harvest, after the season, starting from October, s- we might see a firmer support in terms of the price level of rapeseed”, Cezar Gheorghe emphasized.
