In his speech today, on the occasion of the celebration of the victory of the Soviet army against the German army, against the backdrop of tensions related to the war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin said – as a warning – that the Russian strategic forces are always ready for battle. Today’s military parade was attended by more than 9,000 soldiers, according to the Russian press, data also taken over by the European press, armored vehicles, missile launchers, fighter jets, intercontinental missiles. “Russia will do everything to avoid a global confrontation. But at the same time we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are now on alert“said Vladimir Putin. In a sign of a deepening rift with the West, the Kremlin leader recently ordered tactical nuclear exercises, involving troops stationed near Ukraine, in response to “Western threats” aimed at Russia. On Monday, the Pentagon denounced Moscow’s “irresponsible rhetoric”. A deputy Russian foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said the exercises were part of “efforts” to strengthen Russia’s nuclear deterrent in the face of escalation by its “Western adversaries.” Today, Vladimir Putin accused the West of wanting to “forget the lessons of the Second World War” and said that Moscow, which presents itself as a counterweight to Anglo-Saxon influence, rejected the “claim of exclusivity” of any government or alliances. Vladimir Putin, now 71, presents the attack on Ukraine as an existential conflict and promises “victory” to his fellow citizens, each time against a Ukrainian government portrayed as “neo-Nazi”. However, it is impossible to compare the two historical episodes. The victory of May 9, 1945, which the Westerners commemorated on May 8, the date of the German capitulation, signed in Reims, is that of an armed country that resisted an occupier who wanted to destroy it and make it disappear. If we apply this reading grid, today’s Russia started a war, for the same reasons, even if the Kremlin claims that NATO threatened its security, through an unaccepted expansion. The Russian army of 2024 is not fighting against Nazism and it is difficult, if not downright aberrant, to compare the alleged discrimination of the Ukrainian authorities against the Russian speakers, the Russophones of Donbas, with the extermination policy of the Nazis. There are extreme-right groups in Ukraine who have worn swastikas and dream of destroying Russia, but the current Russian army is not a “liberating” army of an oppressed Ukrainian people. On the front line, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its daily conflict update, the Russian army has recently made significant tactical progress northwest of Avdiivka and advanced about 4 km from Ocheretyn, but is failing to take control of Chassiv Yar, 30 km from Kramatorsk, the main city of Donetsk Oblast, under Ukrainian control, an important railway and logistics hub. The celebration of May 9 gave Vladimir Putin the opportunity to compare, really absurd, between the Second World War and the current conflict in Ukraine, the main axis of Russian propaganda. The military parade was short, but revealing about Russia’s intentions today. As for the guest list, it included only the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Cuba, Guinea-Bissau, Laos, the latter for an exotic touch of the official platform. Other parades were canceled for security reasons, especially in areas bordering Ukraine. The awareness of the futility of the war waged in Ukraine, and against the backdrop of the diminishing combat capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces, suggests a relative stabilization of the situation. On the front line, the situation is rather one of stalemate, which would require Russia to accept a negotiation with the West under more or less favorable conditions, preventing the further destruction of Ukrainian territory. Enormous and incalculable risks, however, remain unsettling. Without the direct participation of European ground forces, Ukraine will inevitably experience military defeat, even if it is promised help as needed. Only peace negotiations will prevent a fatal scenario, but the West will have to accept the sacrifice of a part of Ukraine to end this nightmare, which has lasted for more than two years, with incalculable loss of human life and everything we know. .
